Peter Lynch’s 25 Golden Rules for Investing

Peter Lynch is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time. He is known for his successful track record as the manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund, which he ran from 1977 to 1990.

 

During his tenure, Lynch grew the fund from $18 million to over $14 billion, achieving an average annual return of 29.2%, which is more than double the return of the S&P 500 index during the same period. His success was due to his investment philosophy of finding undervalued companies with strong growth prospects, and his ability to identify emerging trends before they became widely recognized.

 

Overall, Peter Lynch is remembered as a legendary investor who achieved exceptional results by sticking to his investment principles and taking a long-term perspective on the companies he invested in.

Rule 1: Investing is fun and exciting, but dangerous if you don’t do any work.

 

Rule 2: Your investor’s edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It’s something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.

 

Rule 3: Over the past 3 decades, the stock market has come to be dominated by a herd of professional investors. Contrary to popular belief, this makes it easier for the amateur investor. You can beat the market by ignoring the herd.

 

Rule 4: Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.

 

Rule 5: Often, there is no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even a few years. In the long term, there is a 100% correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient, and to own successful companies.

 

Rule 6: You have to know what you own, and why you own it. “This baby is a cinch to goup” doesn’t count.

 

Rule 7: Long shots almost always miss the mark.

 

Rule 8: Owning stocks is like having children — don’t get involved with more than you can handle. The part-time stock picker probably has time to follow 8-12 companies, and to buy and sell shares as conditions warrant. There don’t have to be more than 5 companies in the portfolio at any one time.

 

Rule 9: If you can’t find any companies that you think are attractive, put your money in the bank until you discover some.

 

Rule 10: Never invest in a company without understanding its finances. The biggest losses in stocks come from companies with poor balance sheets. Always look at the balance sheet to see if a company is solvent before you risk your money on it.

 

Rule 11: Avoid hot stocks in hot industries. Great companies in cold, non- growth industries are consistent big winners.

 

Rule 12: With small companies, you are better off to wait until they turn a profit before you invest.

 

Rule 13: If you are thinking of investing in a troubled industry, buy the companies with staying power. Also, wait for the industry to show signs of revival. Buggy whips and radio tubes were troubled industries that never came back.

 

Rule 14: If you invest $1000 in a stock, all you can lose is $1000, but you stand to gain $10,000 or even $50,000 overtime if you are patient. The average person can concentrate on a few good companies, while the fund manager is forced to diversify. By owning too many stocks, you lose this advantage of concentration. It only takes a handful of big winners to make a lifetime of investing worthwhile.

 

Rule 15: In every industry and every region of the country, the observant amateur can find great growth companies long before the professionals have discovered them.

 

Rule 16: A stock market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you are prepared, it can’t hurt you. A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.

 

Rule 17: Everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach. If you are susceptible to selling everything in a panic, you ought to avoid stocks and stock mutual funds altogether.

 

Rule 18: There is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of the newscasters. Sell a stock because the company’s fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.

 

Rule 19: Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market, Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you have invested.

 

Rule 20: If you study 10 companies, you will find 1 for which the story is better than expected. If you study 50, you’ll find 5. There are always pleasant surprises to be found in the stock market — companies whose achievements are being overlooked on Wall Street.

 

Rule 21: If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.

 

Rule 22: Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies. You can afford to be patient — even if you missed Wal-Mart in the first five years, it was a great stock to own in the next five years. Time is against you when you own options.

 

Rule 23: If you have the stomach for stocks, but neither the time nor the inclination to do the homework, invest in equity mutual funds. Here, it’s a good idea to diversify. You should own a few different kinds of funds, with managers who pursue different styles of investing: growth, value small companies, large companies etc. Investing the six of the same kind of fund is not diversification.

 

Rule 24: Among the major stock markets of the world, the U.S. market ranks 8th in total return over the past decade. You can take advantage of the faster- growing economies by investing some portion of your assets in an overseas fund with a good record.

 

Rule 25: In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or a money-market account.

 

In the long run, a portfolio of poorly chosen stocks won’t outperform the money left under the mattress.

5 powers that will make money for you while you rest

1. Power of compounding

Albert Einstein once said “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it”.

What is compounding?

Compounding is the ability of an investment to generate earnings that are reinvested to generate even more earnings over time.

Compounding is a powerful force because as the investment grows, the amount of interest or returns generated also grows, and over time, the growth can become significant. The longer the investment is left to compound, the greater the potential for growth becomes.

Compounding can be used to build wealth over the long term, as even small investments can grow into substantial sums of money over time. A Rs. 2000 SIP in one of the oldest midcap fund, Nippon India Growth Fund, since inception would have created a corpus of Rs. 2.5 crore (investment Rs. 6.5 lacs only)

It’s the most time consuming to achieve the first crore. Subsequently, power of compounding works in investors favor to reach subsequent crores.

2.Power of starting early

As evident from the below picture, even though Savita is making 74% less investment during her journey, yet she is able to create a 113% higher corpus than Kavita just by starting early.

Cost of delaying is very high in the investment journey:

3.Power of patience

We all know that equity markets do not give a linear return like a fixed deposit. Volatility is the price an investor has to pay to get that ‘extra return’.

Black swan events like COVID or 9/11 or Russia Ukraine war can have an immediate impact on the markets. However, investors who have patiently held their investments, have created huge wealth for themselves.

Equity Markets witness 10-20% temporary declines almost every year. Despite an intra year decline of more than 10% almost every year, 3 out of 4 years ended with positive returns!

Despite several intermittent crises, Indian Equities have gone up over the long run mirroring earnings growth

4.Power of diversification: 

Diversification is the practice of spreading your investments across different asset classes, sectors, and geographies. It helps reduce risk by ensuring that a single event or market downturn doesn’t wipe out your entire portfolio.

No asset class is able to consistently give linear returns. Therefore, it is important to diversify portfolio across various asset classes:

Within equity as well, it is prudent to diversify as no category works every year: 

5.Power of discipline:

Discipline is essential to avoid emotional decision-making, such as panic selling during market downturns or chasing after hot stocks. It involves sticking to a long-term investment strategy, maintaining a well-diversified portfolio, and avoiding impulsive investment decisions.

Do you know the major difference between a successful and unsuccessful investor? Successful investors are disciplined! Their investment decisions are not driven by greed, fear, and emotions. They know how to react when the market turns volatile.

Chat GPT (Artificial-Intelligence Chatbot) Answers Common Financial Queries

What is Chat GPT?

 

ChatGPT is a powerful artificial-intelligence chatbot developed by OpenAI and launched in November 2022. It garnered attention for its detailed responses and articulate answers across many domains of knowledge. It is capable of understanding human speech and producing in-depth writing that is easily understood by humans. Microsoft has planned a $10 billion investment in ChatGPT.

 

It can be accessed at https://chat.openai.com

 

We asked ChatGPT ten common financial queries and here’s what ChatGPT said:

Q.1 Why equity generates higher return in the long run?

 

ChatGPT’s response: Equity investments can generate higher returns in the long run due to several reasons:

  1. Ownership in the company: When an investor buys a stock, they are effectively buying a share of ownership in the underlying company. This means that as the company grows and becomes more profitable, the value of the stock can increase, leading to higher returns for the investor.

  2. Dividends: Many companies pay out a portion of their profits in the form of dividends to shareholders. Over the long run, reinvesting these dividends can result in significant gains for investors, especially if the dividends are reinvested in additional shares of the company’s stock.

  3. Economic growth: Equity investments are often tied to economic growth, as a growing economy can lead to increased company profits and higher stock prices. Over the long run, as economies grow and expand, equity investments can benefit from this growth and generate higher returns.

  4. Compounding returns: Equity investments have the potential to generate compounding returns, which means that returns earned on an investment are reinvested back into the investment, leading to exponential growth over time. This can result in significant gains for investors over the long run.

     

It’s important to note that equity investments also carry higher risks, as stock prices can be volatile and can fluctuate significantly in the short term. However, over the long run, equity investments can generate higher returns than other asset classes such as bonds or cash equivalents, making them a potentially valuable addition to a well-diversified investment portfolio.

Q.2 Why should one invest in equity in India

 

ChatGPT’s response: There are several reasons why investing in equity in India can be a good choice for some investors:

  1. Growth potential: India is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, with a large and growing middle class, increasing urbanization, and a young population. This can create opportunities for companies to grow and generate higher returns for investors.

  2. Diversification: Investing in Indian equities can provide diversification benefits for a global portfolio, as the Indian stock market has a different composition of companies and industries than other markets.

  3. Demographic dividend: India has a large and young population, which is expected to drive consumption and economic growth in the coming years. This can benefit companies in sectors such as consumer goods, healthcare, and education, among others.

  4. Structural reforms: The Indian government has implemented several structural reforms in recent years, such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST), bankruptcy code, and foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization, among others. These reforms can improve the ease of doing business and create a more favorable investment climate for companies.

  5. Access to emerging markets: India is geographically well-positioned to access other emerging markets in Asia and Africa, which can create opportunities for companies to expand their operations and generate higher returns.

     

It’s important to note that investing in Indian equities also carries risks, including political and regulatory risks, currency fluctuations, and market volatility. It’s important to consider one’s own risk tolerance and investment goals before making any investment decisions, and to seek the advice of a professional financial advisor.

Q.3 What should be reasonable expectation when investing in the Indian equity markets

 

ChatGPT’s response: When investing in Indian equity markets, it’s important to have reasonable expectations about potential returns and risks. Here are some factors to consider when setting expectations:

  1. Historical returns: Over the long run, Indian equity markets have generated attractive returns for investors, with the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty indices averaging annualized returns of around 12-15% over the past few decades. However, it’s important to note that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.

  2. Market volatility: Indian equity markets can be volatile and subject to short-term fluctuations due to various factors such as economic growth, geopolitical events, and global market trends. As such, investors should be prepared for short-term market volatility and be willing to take a long-term view when investing in Indian equities.

  3. Diversification: It’s important to diversify investments across different sectors and asset classes to manage risks and potentially enhance returns. This can help reduce the impact of market volatility and specific risks associated with individual stocks or sectors.

  4. Investment horizon: The investment horizon is a key factor in determining potential returns. Equity investments are generally considered suitable for long-term investors who have a time horizon of 5-10 years or more. Investors should have a realistic investment horizon and not expect to generate significant returns in the short term.

     

Overall, it’s reasonable to expect that investing in Indian equity markets can potentially generate attractive returns over the long run, but investors should also be prepared for short-term volatility and manage risks through diversification and a long-term investment horizon. It’s important for investors to do their own research, consult with a financial advisor, and make informed investment decisions based on their financial goals and risk tolerance.

Q.4 Whether to speculate or invest?

 

ChatGPT’s response: Speculation and investing are two different approaches to the financial markets, and each has its own benefits and risks.

 

Speculation involves making bets on the short-term price movements of securities or other assets, with the goal of profiting from price fluctuations. Speculators often use leverage and take on higher levels of risk in the hopes of earning high returns quickly. However, speculation can also lead to significant losses if the market moves against the speculator’s position.

 

Investing, on the other hand, involves buying and holding securities or other assets for the long-term, with the goal of generating returns through a combination of income and capital appreciation. Investors typically focus on the underlying fundamentals of the assets they invest in, such as earnings, dividends, and growth prospects, and aim to build diversified portfolios that can weather short-term market volatility.

 

While speculation can generate higher returns in the short-term, investing is generally considered to be a more prudent approach over the long-term. By focusing on the underlying value of assets and holding them for the long-term, investors can potentially generate steady, reliable returns while avoiding the risks associated with short-term speculation.

 

Ultimately, whether to speculate or invest depends on an individual’s risk tolerance, investment goals, and time horizon. It is important to carefully consider the risks and benefits of each approach and seek the advice of a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Q.5 Direct equity or mutual fund for a retail investor

 

ChatGPT’s response: Whether to invest in direct equity or mutual funds depends on an individual’s investment goals, risk tolerance, and level of investment expertise.

 

Direct equity investing involves buying individual stocks and managing one’s own portfolio. This approach requires a high level of investment expertise, as it involves researching individual companies, analyzing financial statements, and making informed decisions about when to buy and sell stocks. Direct equity investing can potentially generate higher returns than mutual funds, but it also carries higher risks and requires a significant amount of time and effort.

 

Mutual funds, on the other hand, are professionally managed investment vehicles that pool money from multiple investors to invest in a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, or other securities. This approach provides investors with instant diversification and access to a wide range of securities without requiring individual research or management. Mutual funds also offer various investment.

 

For retail investors with limited investment expertise or time, mutual funds may be a more suitable option as they offer instant diversification and professional management. However, for those with a higher level of investment expertise and a willingness to actively manage their own portfolio, direct equity investing may be a viable option.

 

Regardless of the investment approach chosen, it is important for investors to carefully consider their investment goals, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon, and seek the advice of a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Q.6 How can I create wealth through mutual funds?

 

ChatGPT’s response: Creating wealth through mutual funds can be achieved by following these steps:

  1. Determine your financial goals: Identify your financial goals and the investment horizon for each goal. This will help you select mutual funds that align with your investment objectives.

  2. Choose the right mutual funds: Look for mutual funds that have a track record of generating attractive returns over the long run. Consider factors such as fund performance, expense ratio, investment style, and risk level when selecting mutual funds.

  3. Invest regularly through systematic investment plans (SIPs): Investing regularly through SIPs can help you take advantage of the power of compounding and potentially generate attractive returns over the long run. Set up a SIP to invest a fixed amount in mutual funds at regular intervals.

  4. Rebalance your portfolio periodically: Rebalancing your mutual fund portfolio involves adjusting your investments to maintain your desired asset allocation. This can help you manage risk and potentially enhance returns over the long run.

  5. Stay invested for the long term: Mutual funds are suitable for long-term investing, and investors should have a long-term investment horizon of at least five years or more. Avoid making frequent changes to your mutual fund portfolio based on short-term market trends.

  6. Review your portfolio regularly: Review your mutual fund portfolio periodically to ensure that it remains aligned with your financial goals and risk tolerance. Make adjustments as needed to stay on track.

     

By following these steps, you can potentially create wealth through mutual funds over the long run. However, it’s important to remember that mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, and past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. It’s important to do your own research, seek the guidance of a financial advisor, and make informed investment decisions based on your financial goals and risk tolerance.

Q.7 Why systematic investment plan (SIP) is a good investment option

 

ChatGPT’s response: Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) is a good investment option for several reasons:

  1. Disciplined approach to investing: SIP allows investors to invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals (monthly, quarterly, etc.), which promotes a disciplined approach to investing. By investing a fixed amount regularly, investors can avoid the temptation to time the market and invest based on short-term market fluctuations.

  2. Rupee cost averaging: SIP involves investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, regardless of whether the market is up or down. This can result in rupee cost averaging, where investors end up buying more shares when prices are low and fewer shares when prices are high. Over time, this can result in lower average purchase costs and higher returns.

  3. Potential for higher returns: SIPs can potentially generate higher returns over the long term, as equity investments can generate higher returns than other asset classes such as bonds or cash equivalents. Additionally, the power of compounding can help generate significant gains over time.

  4. Convenience and flexibility: SIPs are convenient and flexible, as investors can choose the amount they want to invest and the frequency of their investments based on their financial goals and investment objectives. Additionally, SIPs are available for a wide range of investment products, including mutual funds, stocks, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

     

Overall, SIP is a good investment option for investors looking to start investing in the stock market with a disciplined approach and without timing the market. It is important for investors to carefully consider their investment goals, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon, and seek the advice of a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Q.8 Value of a financial advice in investing

 

ChatGPT’s response: Financial advice can be invaluable when it comes to investing, especially for individuals who are new to investing or lack the time or expertise to make informed investment decisions on their own. Here are some of the benefits of seeking financial advice:

  1. Expertise and knowledge: Financial advisors have the expertise and knowledge to analyze market trends, evaluate investment products, and make informed investment decisions. They can help investors identify investment opportunities and provide guidance on creating a well-diversified investment portfolio that aligns with their financial goals and risk tolerance.

  2. Risk management: Financial advisors can help investors manage risk by recommending investment products that are appropriate for their risk tolerance and investment objectives. They can also help investors rebalance their portfolios periodically to ensure that their investments remain aligned with their goals and risk tolerance.

  3. Financial planning: Financial advisors can help investors with financial planning, including retirement planning, tax planning, and estate planning. They can provide guidance on saving and investing for specific financial goals and help investors make informed decisions about managing their wealth.

  4. Behavioral coaching: Financial advisors can provide behavioral coaching to help investors avoid common investing mistakes, such as reacting to short-term market fluctuations or making impulsive investment decisions. They can help investors stay disciplined and focused on their long-term investment objectives.

     

Overall, financial advice can provide investors with the expertise, knowledge, and guidance they need to make informed investment decisions and achieve their financial goals. It is important to seek out a reputable financial advisor who is qualified and licensed to provide investment advice and who has a fiduciary duty to act in their clients’ best interests.

Q.9 Why many investors lose money in equities

 

ChatGPT’s response: There are several reasons why investors may lose money in equities:

  1. Lack of knowledge and research: Many investors may lack the knowledge and research needed to make informed investment decisions. They may invest in stocks based on rumors, tips, or short-term market trends without understanding the underlying fundamentals of the companies they are investing in.

  2. Emotional investing: Emotional investing can lead to poor investment decisions, such as buying high and selling low, or reacting to short-term market fluctuations. This can result in investors buying and selling stocks at the wrong time and missing out on long-term investment opportunities.

  3. Lack of diversification: Investing in only a few stocks or sectors can lead to concentrated risk, where a decline in the performance of one stock or sector can significantly impact the overall portfolio. Diversification across different sectors and asset classes can help manage risk and potentially enhance returns.

  4. Market volatility: Equity markets can be volatile and subject to short-term fluctuations due to various factors such as economic growth, geopolitical events, and global market trends. Investors who are not prepared for short-term market volatility may panic and sell their investments during market downturns, locking in losses.

  5. Timing the market: Timing the market involves trying to buy and sell stocks based on short-term market trends. This is extremely difficult to do successfully, and investors who try to time the market may end up buying stocks at high prices and selling at low prices, resulting in losses.

     

Overall, investors may lose money in equities due to a variety of factors related to lack of knowledge, research, emotional investing, lack of diversification, and market volatility. To avoid these pitfalls, it’s important for investors to do their own research, diversify their investments, have a long-term investment horizon, and seek the guidance of a financial advisor.

Q.10 Make a stock portfolio for me to beat nifty 50

 

ChatGPT’s response: I’m sorry, as an AI language model, I am not authorized to create personalized investment recommendations or portfolios. Building an investment portfolio is a complex and personalized process that requires a thorough understanding of your financial goals, risk tolerance, investment horizon, and other personal circumstances.

 

It is always recommended to seek the guidance of a financial advisor who can evaluate your personal financial situation, assess your investment goals and risk tolerance, and recommend a customized investment portfolio that is tailored to your needs.

 

Additionally, beating the Nifty 50 index over the long-term is not easy and requires a lot of research, analysis, and risk-taking. While some investors have been able to beat the index, many others have failed to do so. Therefore, it’s important to approach investing with a long-term perspective, diversify your portfolio across different asset classes, and avoid taking excessive risks that could jeopardize your financial goals.

2023: End of a golden era of tax-free investment products

One of the most important criteria while deciding the feasibility of an investment is its tax impact. In a country of 140 crore population, 70% own a mobile phone, 40% are employed but only 5.7% pay taxes on income. Further, a small subsection of Indians (specially the salaried class) pays a large portion of all personal income tax. In contrast, in the U.S., about 45 per cent of the population pays taxes.


Without any doubt, the 8-crore tax paying Indian community always preferred to invest their savings in tax free investment products. However, the things have changed in the last decade – the government has introduced a host of tax laws to tax/ withdraw tax exemption from most of the tax-free products that were available in the Indian financial market:


  1. Dividends:

    Before 01/04/2020, dividends from shares, mutual funds and ULIPs were tax free in the hands of recipients. However, dividends received during the financial year 2020-21 and onwards are taxable in the hands of the recipients as per normal slab rate.

  2. Employees provident fund:

    Effective 01/04/2022, any interest on an employee’s contribution to EPF/VPF upto INR 2.5 lakhs per year is tax-free and any interest earned on a contribution over and above INR 2.5 lakhs is taxable in the hands of the employees under ‘income from other sources’ at normal slab rates.

  3. Equity/Equity mutual funds:
    Section 112A of the Income Tax Act was introduced in order to levy long term capital gains tax on equity share transfer, equity-oriented funds and business trust units. The tax rate of 10% is applicable on investments in aforesaid products w.e.f. 01/04/2018 subject to a tax-free limit of INR 1 lakh.

  4. Real estate:

    Budget 2023 has put a limit on tax deduction on capital gains through reinvestment in residential house property at Rs 10 cr. Limit on the roll over benefit claimed under section 54 and section 54F of the Income Tax Act will adversely impact the HNIs.

  5. Debt/Gold/International mutual funds:

    In another major move by the government, w.e.f. 01/04/2023, investments in debt mutual funds (<35% equity), gold ETFs/ mutual funds, and mutual funds investing in international securities will be chargeable to tax at normal rate without the benefit of indexation. As of now, they enjoy the benefit of indexation and lower tax rate of 20%.

    How it is going to impact a common man?

    Suppose an investor buys a debt mutual fund for INR 100 and sells for INR 120 after 3 years. If invested before 31/03/2023, indexed cost would have been INR 115 and tax would have been payable on INR 5, that too, 20%. Only, INR 1 went to the government in tax. After 01/04/23, the whole gain of INR 20 will be taxable at slab rate (30%+ in most cases) and therefore, INR 6 will go to the government in tax.

    Corporates and HNIs will be adversely impacted by the change in this law.

  6. Insurance:


    Unit Linked Insurance Plan:
    Budget 2021 had proposed to remove the tax-exempt status on the proceeds of ULIPs if the annual premium exceeded INR 2.5 lakh.

    Traditional policies: Budget 2023, in another significant move, proposed to remove the tax-exempt status on the proceeds of traditional insurance plans if the annual premium exceeded INR 5 lakh. However, the change in provision is applicable w.e.f. 01/04/2023 and is not going to impact the policies issued before 01/04/2023.

  7. Cryptocurrencies:

    Profits from sale, swap or spend of any crypto assets are taxed at a rate of 30%. Also, Section 115BBH prohibits offsetting crypto losses against crypto gains, or any other gains or income for that matter.

  8. Market Linked Debentures:

    In a major blow to HNIs, the budget 2023 announced taxation changes to market-linked debentures (MLDs), eliminating the tax advantage enjoyed by these investments. Previously, MLDs were a popular investment choice among high net-worth investors due to the favorable tax treatment of only 10% if held for over 12 months. Now, the tax will be based on investors income tax bracket, which can be as high as 35%.

    Going forward, the investors have limited options that will be totally tax free:

    1. Public Provident Fund: The tenure of PPF is 15 years. But the maximum annual contribution is restricted to INR 1.5 lakh.

    2. Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana: The Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana is a government savings scheme created with the intention to benefit girl child under the initiative called “Beti Bachao – Beti Padhao”

      The maximum tenure of the scheme is 21 years and maximum annual contribution is INR 1.5 lakh.

    3. Tax Free Bonds: NHAI, PFC, REC, IRFC, HUDCO and NABARD bonds are traded in open market but the yields are sub-par (5-6%) viz-a-viz 7.5% on a 10-year government bond.

We strongly believe that India is still an underpenetrated financial market. Complicated as well as unfavorable tax laws will hamper the growth of financial sector in India.

Further, the debt market, which was majorly dependent on debt mutual funds and insurance/pensions funds for market operations will find a tough time in the near future.

Retail investors (directly and through mutual fund investments) have played a significant role in protecting the stock market from aggressive FII selling in the last three years. If not compensated, their interests should have been considered while changing the tax laws.

What may be on cards?

  1. Gold declaration scheme: Gold, along with crude and electronics, is one of the major reasons for forex outflow. Electronics are being manufactured locally through the PLI scheme. India is now a net exporter of mobile phones. To curb high crude imports, EV and hydrogen-based infrastructure is being set up. Another INR 30,000 crore was set aside in Budget for energy transition. To promote digital gold investments, government introduced Sovereign Gold Bonds.

  2. Exit tax on Indians surrendering their citizenship on the lines of the US exit tax: India has lost close to $233B because of 9.3 lac Indians surrendering their citizenship between 2017-21.

  3. ULIP inter scheme switches

Inflation vs. Growth – Biggest challenge faced by global central banks

Sixteenth largest bank in the United States of America, Silicon Valley Bank, collapsed last week. It catered to technology startups and venture capital community.

 

The primary reason for the failure can be attributed to the poor risk management policies of the company. The bank suffered a loss of $15billion by holding a portfolio of bonds yielding 1.6% (current yield 5%).

 

We are living in times when the global economies are doing well but the central banks around the world are raising interest rates at a record pace to control the inflation.

 

Why is inflation so important for central banks that they are willing to trade off the growth? Before proceeding further, two universally important relationship needs to be recalled:

Demand/supply and inflation

As evident from the graph above, prices of any product increases when the demand increases or/and the supply falls (& vice versa).

Interest rates and bond value

Market price of a bond reduces when there is an increase in the interest yields by the government (& vice versa). However, face value and interest payout of the bond remain the same throughout the tenure of the bond.

2001-2008: How it all started

 

Post dot com burst, interest rates (federal rates) in the United States went down from 6% to 1%. Everyone started borrowing heavily and a large chunk of low interest loans went towards sub prime mortgages (home loans to low credit score borrowers).

 

As inflation started to move upward, Central Bank of the United States raised interest rates, which went as high as 5% in 2008. Many borrowers could not afford to repay home loan EMIs and therefore, defaulted. As a result of a high number of defaults, 465 banks, including Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch failed, starting the Global Financial Crisis.

 

To save the economy, the Central Bank acted swiftly and reduced interest rates to a record low of <1% within a few months.

 

2009-2020: Cheap $

 

Interest rates in United States were kept below 1% for the next 12 years. As a result, the national debt in US increased from $10trillion in 2008 to $31trillion in 2020 (68% of GDP in 2008 to 123% of GDP in 2022). This low cost money was invested across the world, in real estate, startups, shares, bonds etc. Low interest rates have following effects:

 

  1. Businesses are willing to take more risks triggering expansion. Profitability increases because of low cost of loans;

  2. Accelerates growth of the economy – Government prints money at low interest;

  3. Consumers prefer to buy on credit;

  4. Increases asset values (discounting future cash flows at lower rates)

 

2021-Present: The new normal?

 

During COVID, the United States provided $1.9trillion in financial aid to Americans. This accelerated the demand for products when the global supply chain was disrupted resulting in record high inflation (prices of goods rise when demand increases or/and supply falls).

 

However, in late 2021, the US government was of the view that inflation is transitory (Inflation that moves above a steady rate for a short period and then reverts back to normal).

 

Russia-Ukraine war reduced the supply of oil, grain and gas to developed nations- further accelerating the prices. As a result, Inflation in US touched a 40 year high of >9%. The stance of the government changed suddenly and it carried out steepest rate hikes in the history of America. [Interest rate hikes curb the demand for goods/loans which in turn controls the prices (inflation)].

 

However, labour market in US is very strong as extremely aggressive subsidy regime has made America attractive again for manufacturing. Unemployment rate is at 50 year low and only 3.5% of Americans, willing to work, are unemployed. This makes situation even more difficult for the central bank as demand for goods does not fall as per expectation.

 

Indian markets:

 

As interest rates are hiked in United States, the dollar appreciates with respect to other currencies (INR fell from 74 to 84 in last one year).

 

  1. To protect INR from sliding further, the Reserve Bank of India also hiked the interest rates in India (Interest rate parity theory);

  2. Foreign investors withdrew money from emerging markets as investing became costly because of higher interest rates & falling currencies (However, there was no major impact on Indian equities as huge inflows from mutual funds, LIC and Employees provident fund provided cushion).

 

As I write this memo, foreign investors are sitting on $400B of cash, which will be eventually invested across geographies (Just to give you an idea – foreign investors just withdrew $5B from Indian equities – a lot of money will be moving back once the global situation stabilises).

Way ahead: No one knows with certainty

 

Scenario 1: Fed hikes interest rates by another 1-1.5% -> inflation cools down -> fed starts rate cuts later this year/early next year

 

Everyone is expecting as well as wanting this as no one wants to bear the consequences of high interest rates. Even if Fed gives an idea about rate cuts, a bull rally in equities may not be ruled out.

 

Scenario 2: Fed aggresively hikes interest rates going forward:

 

Recession can not be avoided. Money will move from equities to short term bonds. However, Fed will step in (like they did in 2008) and cut interest rates to normalise the situation. But this will take some more time.

 

Either ways, rate cuts are bound to happen.

Portfolio strategy:

 

Debt, as an asset class, has become attractive again. Indian 10 year bond is yielding around 7.4%. It is prudent to lockin the interest rates before they slide.

 

Equity: As valuations moderate, we continue to remain bullish on the Indian equities, considering the fact that India is the fastest growing major economy in the world. Historically, equities have always rewarded the patient.

 

Gold: Allocation should be increased considering the recent price correction.

 

Real estate: as an investment should be avoided considering the fact that interest rates are high. There will be slowdown in demand.

 

However, your personal portfolio should be aligned as per your goals and risk appetite. Please get in touch with your wealth manager in case of any query.

Ten key takeaways from the annual letter of the greatest investor in history

Warren Buffet is the chairman & CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. He turned an ailing textile mill into a financial conglomerate.

 

Also known as the Oracle of Omaha, his networth is $108 billion making him the fifth wealthiest person on this planet.

 

 

Since 1965 he has generated an absolute return of 37,87,464% (viz-a-viz 24,708% for S&P500) – outperforming the index by 10% on an annual basis. Today one share of Berkshire Hathaway trades around $ 4,61,705 (a whopping Rs. 4 crore) – up from $19 in 1965.

 

In 11 out of 58 years (19%), stock of Berkshire Hathaway has given negative returns. Still it has managed to generate an annual return of 19.8% in the last 58 years. Every equity investor should accept the fact that volatility will be a part of journey.

Buffet published his annual letter to shareholders on February 25, 2023. Here are the key takeaways from the letter:

 

1. Buy businesses not stocks

 

Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers. Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.

 

2. Be an investor in world of gamblers

 

The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.

 

3. Ignore short term forecasts

 

Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than useless.

 

4. Markets are not efficient

 

“Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.

 

5. Think long term

 

The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividend had increased to $704 million. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from this investment have grown from $41 million to $302 million.

 

Don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments & stubbornly hold them for a long time!

 

6. Invest in equities for wealth creation

 

Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, one that flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be a high-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant 0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so of annual income.

 

<Buffet compared 30-year bond returns with the investments in Coke and Amex>:

7. Be ready to accept failures:

 

Over the years, I have made many mistakes…… Along the way, other businesses in which I have invested have died, their products unwanted by the public. The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom.

 

Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders.

 

8. Avoid leverage

 

There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous.

 

9. Importance of diversification

 

As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses.

 

10. Be grateful

 

We owe the country no less: America’s dynamism has made a huge contribution to whatever success Berkshire has achieved – a contribution Berkshire will always need. We count on the American Tailwind and, though it has been becalmed from time to time, its propelling force has always returned.

Fifteen timeless principles of investing

1. Stock prices are a slave of earnings: In the long run, valuation of a stock is nothing but the price that one pays for the future stream of the expected earnings and the dividends.

2. Volatility is your friend rather than your enemy. There’s a difference between risk and volatility: Risk is permanent loss of capital whereas volatility is unpredicted fluctuation in the stock market. Volatility is an inherent feature of the stock market and results in better returns for a disciplined investor.

Despite the short term volatilities, equity markets have created huge wealth for investors. Lumpsum investments in nifty has yielded an annual return of 12% whereas SIP has yielded around 14% since the year 2000.

3. The greatest long-term risk is not ‘loss of principal’ but ‘erosion of purchasing power’ as inflation tends to erode purchasing power of money over time.

4. A stock is an ownership stake in a business: A stock is seen by many as a cryptic piece of paper whose prices wiggles around continuously.
That’s one way to look at stocks. A far better way, suggested by Benjamin Graham, is to think of them as an ownership stake in an existing business. For eg- One of the reasons to invest in McDonalds stock is to have ownership in 40,000 real estate properties globally as McDonalds owns all the outlets run by its franchises on which it earns rent as well as royalty. The stock has appreciated from $2 in 1983 to $262 in 2023 – a yearly return of 18% excluding dividends.

5. Time in the market beats timing the market: Only two people know the top and bottom of the market: God & a liar. Therefore, it is a futile exercise to time the market (unless there is a black swan event taking the valuations to an extremely low level).

6. Odds of making money in the stock market increases as the time period increases.

7. Earlier the better – the power of compounding: Compounding even at modest rates, when done over a long period of time, produces truly spectacular outcomes

Achieving a CAGR of 100% for a few years is commendable, but achieving a CAGR of 20% for six decades is what makes a Warren Buffett. He played the game for the longest time and became the biggest winner.

8. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent: It’s impossible to know when an overheated market will turn down, or when a downturn will cease and appreciation will take its place. 

Isaac Newton was one of the early investors in South Sea Company. In 1720, the company bagged a deal to manage British government debt. As soon as the news spread, the price of the South Sea stock started soaring. Newton wisely chose to book profits in April and pocketed a handsome gain of about £20,000.As the euphoria around the stock kept on inching higher with every passing day, Newton could not resist the temptation of buying the hottest stock in town once again and invested nearly all his money in June that year and By October, the stock was worth less than a quarter of the price paid by Newton. 

9. Great investing requires both generating returns and controlling risk. The risk reduces by 90% when the time period increases from 1 year to 10 years (in mutual funds):

10. Emotional Quotient is more important that Intelligent Quotients: It requires not only intelligence but also the emotional strength to be a good investor. Few know that Albert Einstein invested much of his 1921 Nobel Prize money in stock markets. However, he lost most of it in the 1929 stock market collapse.

Another classic example is the fall of Long-Term Capital Management – a hedge fund managing $126 billion in 1998. It was run by a team of Nobel Prize-winning economists and renowned Wall Street traders.

11. Don’t use leverage:

Whenever a really bright person who has a lot of money goes broke, it’s because of leverage. —Warren Buffett 

Story of Rick Guerin – third partner at Berkshire:

“Charlie and I always knew that we would become incredibly wealthy. We were not in a hurry to get wealthy; we knew it would happen. Rick was just as smart as us, but he was in a hurry.” What happened was that in the 1973–1974 downturn, Rick was levered with margin loans. And the stock market went down almost 70% in those two years, so he got margin calls. He sold his Berkshire stock to Warren—Warren actually said “I bought Rick’s Berkshire stock”—at under $40 a piece”

Rick was forced to sell because he was levered. Today, one stock of Berkshire is around $ 4,72,000 (INR 4 cr.)

12. Another principle—simple, but easy to overlook—is that building wealth has little to do with your income or investment returns, and lots to do with your savings rate.

13. Don’t try to control what you can’t

14. Market works in cycles

Economies and markets cycle up and down. Whichever direction they’re going at the moment, most people come to behave that they’ll go that way forever. To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are euphorically buying takes the greatest courage, but provides the greatest profit. Always remember “The market’s not a very accommodating machine; it won’t provide high returns just because you need them.”

Over the period we have observed that investing is all about having the patience to hold on to your convictions. When you are unable to delay gratification, your greed is strong and it gets you in trouble in the financial markets.

15. Tune out the noise

We found a frontpage of a business daily, Mint published in May 2012 wherein all the negative headlines were published– High inflation, dollar depreciation & downgrade of Reliance stock (a situation similar to today) but here we are, in 2023, the Sensex has increased from 16,000 to 63,000 (4X jump), Reliance has increased from 345 to 2856 (8X jump) in the last 10 years.

Last but not the least, delegate the details: Financial professionals may help you create a customized portfolio strategy that’s built around your unique goals. Though no one can control markets, we can help you use them to pursue your long-term financial goals.

Planning an early retirement

We have always been saving/investing for our future goals. Investors regularly squirrel out money from their limited incomes for their big future objectives, for their house, first car, kids’ education, weddings, medical needs, emergencies, retirement, etc. However, people’s needs and preferences are changing and hence the goals have evolved. Buying the first car has overtaken the first house in many investors’ priority lists. Little luxuries like watches, purses, frequent vacations, dining in top hotels, etc., have found love for them among Indian consumers. A lot of young students as well as professionals are also inclined to pursue their passions like trekking, yoga, learning foreign languages, etc.

Another change that is increasingly being witnessed among millennials is the desire to retire early. The retirement target age for many has remarkably gone down from 60 to 50, some even want to retire as early as 45 or 40. While it’s a good idea to retire early and pursue your passions and travel the world, while you are relatively young and healthy, can you afford it?

Financially, retiring a decade earlier means 10 fewer years of regular income, translating into 10 fewer years of saving for retirement, and 10 extra years of only outflow. At the age of 35, with not much saving and investment, no proceeds from the inherited property coming your way, not many valuable assets, thinking to retire in the next 10 years may not make much sense. But is it possible? We would say only if the required time and planning are in place.

Before one retires, he/she must have provided for the following:

  • Discharged major financial obligations, like having a home, having kids’ education and marriage expenses covered, etc.
  • Have adequate insurance in place to take care of any uncertainties.
  •  No outstanding loans or debt.
  • Adequate retirement corpus to support you for a long duration.
  • Early retirement may sound challenging, but achievable if approached right. Here are some points which can help you accomplish the above, and let you dream of early retirement.

1. Make a proper plan and keep your finances in place. Look for a knowledgeable and trustworthy financial advisor and convey your intentions of retiring early along with your other goals, your exact financial standing, assets, and liabilities, etc., to the advisor. With the help of your advisor, devise a comprehensive financial plan, which will be a step-by-step action plan to reach your ultimate destination, your early retirement, while providing for all your goals that come on way.

2. Start investing for your Retirement as soon as you start earning. Take up the last goal first, and start saving and investing for your Retirement from the day you start earning, the sooner you start, you are simply buying yourself time for being better equipped for D-Day. You can start with a small SIP and increase gradually as you age and your income increases. While starting soon is important and will give you an edge, it’s not the end, the journey is demanding.

A blend of the following practiced over your working life should help you save enough for your goal:

-> Spend wisely
-> Save aggressively
-> Invest generously

3. Choose the right asset class. Apart from disciplined investing, one thing that can make a lot of difference and contribute immensely to your retirement kitty is the return on your investment. An 8% RD versus an Equity SIP with an average return of 12%, of R 10,000 per month will fetch you R 91.5 lacs and R 1.7 Crore respectively, in 25 years. A difference of just 4% in return almost doubled the corpus over the same period. You have a huge investment horizon in hand, complemented by the ability to take the risks because of the time, invest in products with good growth potential and make the most of compounding.

4. Ensure a debt-free life at the earliest. A prerequisite to retiring early is being Debt Free. So, start paying off your loans, start with high-cost debt like credit cards and personal loans, and gradually move to the car and home loans. Also, about loans, don’t unnecessarily burden yourself with them. When you have prioritized your needs, and an early retirement occupies the top position, let’s strive to achieve it, don’t go for a 3 Bhk house when a 2 Bhk meets your requirements. Or why go for an expensive SUV for a nuclear family, when a mid-segment hatchback or sedan does the job?

5. You can still make money after retirement. Fortunately, for many who wish to retire early, retirement doesn’t mean putting a full stop to earning. Many would be planning to work freelance, as consultants, and trainers, or run things like blogs, Youtube channels, etc. These things can be clubbed with a retired life long with pursuing your passions. Many would also like to build a secondary income source, say rent from additional property, the share of profits from some business as a passive investor, and so on. These things would likely bring in some cash flow which can be great for your retirement plans. The point is to be well-planned and prepared before taking the plunge.

6. Invest your retirement corpus wisely. Investment management is a never-ending process and it will continue even after your retirement. Your retirement corpus should provide you with regular income, if needed, to meet your routine expenses. There are various asset class options like real estate, fixed interest-bearing instruments, small saving schemes, etc., which can give you a regular income. However, the investing factors like risk appetite, income needs, liquidity needs, longevity needs, etc. Thus, debt mutual funds and balanced funds with SWP (Systematic Withdrawal Plan) option, can be looked at for your post-retirement investment planning. While a debt fund will give steady, relatively risk-free returns, a balanced fund will also allow making the corpus to grow and thus last longer, albeit with a bit more risk.

To conclude, pursuing an early retirement is, you are bargaining for an extended period of life to let you experience the beauty of this planet, from your heart and soul. However, retiring early, as attractive as it sounds, needs unadulterated devotion and commitment on your part. Once you have made up your mind that you want to retire early, infidelity with retirement planning can wreck your aspirations.

Decoding Financial Freedom


What does financial freedom mean? If you ask this question to yourself and ten other people it won’t be surprising to find different answers from all. Even authors, financial gurus, and top advisors have talked about financial freedom in different tones. 

For some, it means never having to work again or having huge wealth while for others it may be financial stability or simply being free from financial troubles. Financial freedom is a term that is vastly and liberally used but is very subjective. Even having huge wealth is very subjective as there is no end to how much is enough while life needs can be satisfactorily met with much less than you may imagine. 

For one it may mean living a lavish life in a grand bungalow but for another, it may mean selling a Mumbai flat and settling in a village, with the proceeds lasting him a peaceful lifetime.

FINANCIAL FREEDOM: THE THREE CHECK-POINTS

Financial freedom is much more than having money. It’s the freedom to be who you are and do what you want in life. Financial freedom has different implications for different individuals though. And if we are aiming for financial freedom, we are aiming for something beyond the three checkpoints which have to be ticked. Only then could we say that we are financially free in a real sense.

It means having the freedom to maintain your lifestyle after a certain point of time, without having to work for it. Time can be your retirement period, it can be the happening of an unfortunate event, like an accident or failure of a business or it can be that one day when you simply quit your job and start exploring the beauty of this world without worrying about the ‘how to earn?’ part of the money.

And secondly, all your responsibilities and life goals should be satisfactorily met. Having financial freedom also means that not only you can maintain your lifestyle and meet daily needs but also are in a position to fulfill your life responsibilities like child education, marriage, arranging for a residential home, charity, and all other goals you may have.

Lastly, you should be able to sustain yourself for a very long period – a few decades maybe on the loss of income or your entire life or your post-retirement life until you become an old hag. This sustainability means that you should be prepared for and able to withstand any unfortunate event in your life, including ailments and accidents.

FINANCIAL FREEDOM: REALLY?

Financial Freedom, for most people, is the ultimate Goal. But to be realistic, NO ONE chooses to ‘stop’ working or live a life of a wanderer or a lazy person even if there was no need to work. Even the richest person on the planet works very hard but for a different reason. Once the question of making a living is solved, one progresses to the non-material aspects of living. It then becomes a question of your passion, beliefs, and basically what you enjoy doing in life. If it is your work or business, nothing like it.

So what we mean by financial freedom is not something vague or subjective. Financial freedom = freedom from fear. Freedom from the uncertainty of how you will live or do things you need to do tomorrow, irrespective of anything that happens. It is about being ready for freedom from financial worries & equipping yourself with enough investments and insurance for protecting your future needs. When considered in this context, financial freedom looks more like financial well-being for all of us and that looks very feasible and practical and an ‘X’ figure for the same can easily arrive mathematically. We will not talk about that now though. What we are interested in is really how quickly can we attain that freedom of mind & ensure its sustainability. We will now discuss the important steps which can help you gradually ‘attain’ and also ‘sustain’ financial well-being. So here we go:

ENSURING FINANCIAL WELL-BEING

(A) Passive Income: To get rich, you have to be making money while you sleep! A crucial step in financial well-being is not just protecting your income stream, but also creating a second or multiple sources of passive income. This can be in the form rental income, income from investments, side business, etc. Passive income is a must, especially when your primary income seems insufficient or seems at risk or when you plan to dump it in future. In simplistic terms, financial freedom could be closer if – Passive Income > All Expenses. If this can be ensured a predictable future, with a bit of margin, you are in a safe zone!

(B) Good Debt & Bad Debt: There is a distinction between good debt and bad debt and one should understand both and try to be free from the latter. Debt helps you achieve a lot of things in life that are impossible otherwise. You take loans for education, for buying your house, or your car or a businessman takes a loan for filling the working capital gap. In terms of the loan, this equation is necessary to be checked (i) asset is created or some basic /important need is fulfilled (ii) if an asset is created, the minimum return from the asset > interest rate of the loan, without the need for any speculation or leveraging. Using debt to finance short-term, non-important desires like vacations, gadget purchases, etc. is not welcome. Credit card loans & personal loans are the worst because of the high-interest rates they carry. Being debt free is surely a very healthy status to have and is necessary for long-term financial well-being. The thought ‘freedom from debt is financial freedom’ is not entirely misplaced. If you are using debt to own appreciating assets like homes, businesses, etc., make sure that you wind it up soon before thinking of financial freedom.

(C) Risk protection: Protect the downside with Insurance. Secure yourself and your family by taking adequate Medical Insurance, Term Insurance, Accidental Insurance, and Property Insurance. The insurance premium is often considered a burden, but it is the biggest shield you are creating for yourself in your fight for financial well-being. In case of an unfortunate event, your insurance will take care of the extra financial burden in the form of hospital bills, medical bills, and loss of income. Your investments working for your goals will be intact, thus ensuring continued financial well-being, devoid of any shocks.

(D) Staying within your means: Do not go overboard if you enjoy a good income and have created decent assets. Whether any expense is necessary at present and what potential wealth it can create in the future if invested? is a question one should keep asking oneself. Doing this will help us attain financial well-being sooner than we can expect. After that, sustaining your financial well-being will be a challenge. Sustainability is all about continuing to enjoy the lifestyle you deserve not the extravagant lifestyle you see in the movies. It is about staying within your means and within the acceptable boundaries you have planned for yourself.

(E) Don’t Be Stupid: There are many cases of millionaires and billionaires have gone bankrupt. So having money does not mean being rich always. Do not commit stupid mistakes when it comes to money. Many people with the desire to make more money quickly, take wrong investing decisions, which can hamper their finances for a very long period, can even stymie their goal of achieving financial well-being. Beware of ‘Ponzi’ schemes, equity market speculations, or investing in risky products – these things can cost you big in the long run. The better idea is to seek professional guidance and do the basic things right like starting early, saving, investing in the right asset class, being patient, and investing for the long term, etc. Remember you can attain and sustain financial well-being, provided you do not make big mistakes in life.

CONCLUSION

Financial freedom is a mental, emotional, educational, and behavioral process. If we consider it as our goal, it would require us to be and do much more than today. It would require discipline, focus, and to become more successful & stronger in every aspect of our lives. Having money is and will never be enough. How to use that money for our good is what matters. And how to live a life in the end, makes the most difference. The above steps are just a few things that will help you to take control of your situation and start your journey toward financial well-being & freedom.

Behavioral biases in investment decision making

  1. 1. Anchoring

    Anchoring is quite a common cognitive bias witnessed among investors, which means basing investment decisions on an initial piece of information. This initial information serves as the starting point, which we adjust, to arrive at investment conclusions. Say, for instance, you bought a stock of XYZ co., in January at Rs. 100, at the end of May the stock went up to Rs. 130, then the top management changed, and by October the stock came trotting down to Rs. 90. Now, you are holding on to the stock hoping it will again rise to Rs. 130, then only you will sell to book the profits.

    In this case, you may be clinging onto the anchor. Buy, sell or hold decisions must be on the back of fundamentals, and not on previous highs or lows. Don’t let perceptions or experiences, good or bad, clout your judgment ability, a past bad experience with equity doesn’t direct the future, it’s the rudiments of the product that matter in the long term.

    2. Confirmation bias

    Another product of extending our beliefs and preconceived notions to our decision-making process is Confirmation Bias. For instance, you are looking forward to the launch of the new Honda Civic for your next car upgrade, you have read good reviews about the car, the Sunday car shows are talking about the Civic, and all the blogs you read people have written good things about the car, etc.

    All the information seems to be in the affirmative, so now you firmly believe that you have made the right decision. But have you ever thought that it is only because you are reading selective reviews and blogs? Probably you have subconsciously ignored contradictory views and negative reviews or skipped reading good things about other cars in the segment. In short, we are all ears to information that supports our beliefs, while filtering out everything that does not fit into our comfort zone. And when this tendency is extended to finances, it dilutes the investment decision-making process.

    You may be looking at only that information that is in alignment with your notions while ignoring the rest. Try to look at contradictory viewpoints, and consult your financial advisor, he/she will show you the right path.

    3. Loss aversion bias

    The most common one, we fear the possibility of loss, and we are just not prepared to let go of our money, under any circumstance. We hold on to the poor performers because we do not want to book losses we purchase more of the same infertile stock/mutual fund to average out the cost and cover up the losses that we have made. You have to accept the fact that a bad decision was made, book losses, and move on. Our strength is tested in volatile times when we see our investments falling. It’s up to us, we can either fall prey to the bias, and sell our investment to avoid losses; or we can do what we ought to do, that avoid the noise, and hold the investment for it is for our long-term goals.

    4. Mental accounting bias

    Mental Accounting Bias is the tendency to mentally categorize money into different mental accounts based on their source or the basis of its intended use, and then treat the money in different categories differently. For Example, you had set aside Rs 500 note last month for buying yourself a book, but then today when you open your cupboard, you find that you have lost the note. You are sad and decide you’ll not buy the book. Normally, had you ‘not’ dedicated this note to the book, and would have lost Rs. 500 in the usual course, the book purchase might not have been affected. This is a simple case of Mental Accounting Bias. Similarly, people take investment decisions based on the mental accounts they have created. For instance, in case of a sudden inflow of money like a bonus or inheritance received, people tend to be irrational in their decisions compared to when the source is their monthly salary. Or say you have kept an FD for your vacation and at the same time you are paying massive interest on your credit card bill outstanding. Logically you should break the FD to pay the loan since you are getting 7% and paying 25%, but you don’t do so, since you have created a mental account for that money in your mind. We must understand here that money is fungible, and the value is the same irrespective of the source or the outlay. Hence, you must be careful of such mental accounts and the impact they may have on your investing decisions.

    5. Familiarity bias

    At times our investment decisions are based on our connection or comfort with the product we are investing in. People working in banks often purchase their employer’s stocks or banking sector stocks, we invest in stocks or sectors because we have researched a lot on this stock/sector and believe in it, and the like. Because of this bent towards our familiar options, we are restricting our investment horizon. There is a universe of investment products available out there, and we must choose the best from the lot.

    6. Bandwagon

    As the name suggests, we have this uncontrollable urge to order what the people at the other table are eating. We often extend the urge to our investing decisions also, we feel other people are making money because they made better choices, and we feel we are missing out on some information that they may have, it’s a typical case of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), and it can have disastrous repercussions. Every individual is unique in terms of his/her financial standing, goals, needs, priorities, and risk appetite, so how can the investing process or products be similar? Hence, you must always be mindful that investing is not about making more money by following your neighbor, rather it’s about gratifying your unique goals and needs.

    To conclude, a large number of times, we follow our emotions, and inclinations tend to influence our day-to-day decisions. Without realizing it, you might have fallen prey to biases, while in investment decision-making. They say “The one who has mastered his emotions is mightier than one who conquers a city”, it is inordinately applicable to investing, and we must always stick to the fundamentals and follow our master plan religiously. And your financial advisor is there to help you overcome these cognitive biases and to show you the mirror whenever your decisions are clouded by your emotions.