Monthly Market Outlook – May’25

End of an Era: Warren Buffett Announces Retirement

  1. Warren Buffett, the ‘Oracle of Omaha’, has officially announced his retirement, marking the close of one of the most remarkable careers in global financial history.

     

  2. Over six decades, Buffett transformed Berkshire Hathaway from a struggling textile firm into a $900 billion conglomerate, making it one of the most respected companies in the world.

     

  3. Under his leadership, Berkshire Hathaway stock rose from $11 in 1965 to over $800,000 per share in 2025, delivering a CAGR of over 19% for 60 years—unmatched in modern history.

     

  4. Buffett created more millionaires and billionaires than any investor alive, simply by sticking to timeless principles of value investing, patience, and discipline.

     

  5. He championed investing in businesses, not stocks, famously stating: “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

     

  6. Among his biggest wins: Coca-Cola, American Express, Apple, Bank of America, and Geico—all held for decades and compounding value quietly.

     

  7. He was one of the first investors to understand the power of “float”—using insurance premiums to fund investments long before payouts.

     

  8. Buffett never split Berkshire stock or paid dividends, encouraging long-term ownership and investor loyalty—a rare feat in today’s fast-paced markets.

     

  9. Despite his success, he maintained a frugal lifestyle, living in the same Omaha home since 1958 and driving modest cars—reinforcing his authenticity.

     

  10. He is globally admired for his ethical standards, integrity, and humility in an industry often marked by short-termism and hype.

 

  1. His annual letters to shareholders became investment gospel, offering not just financial insight but timeless life and business lessons.

     

  2. Buffett was a teacher at heart—mentoring thousands of investors without charging a fee, and urging them to “stay in their circle of competence.”

     

  3. His closest business partner, Charlie Munger, who passed in 2023, was an inseparable intellectual force in shaping Buffett’s thinking.

     

  4. One of Buffett’s most lasting legacies is philanthropy: He has pledged to give away 99% of his $150 billion wealth, with billions already donated through the Gates Foundation.

     

  5. Buffett spearheaded the “Giving Pledge”, encouraging the world’s wealthiest to commit a majority of their fortune to society.

     

  6. He famously said, “I want to give my kids enough so they can do anything, but not so much that they can do nothing,” embodying his values-driven parenting.

     

  7. He built Berkshire to survive beyond him—his succession plan is already in place, with Greg Abel expected to lead a well-structured, decentralized empire.

     

  8. While he’s stepping back from active management, his principles—prudence, patience, and simplicity—will remain embedded in investment philosophy for generations to come.

     

  9. Buffett taught us that the most powerful force in investing isn’t prediction, but compounding—and the real edge is temperament, not IQ.

     

  10. As this era ends, investors are left not just with a remarkable track record—but with a blueprint for life: value people, value patience, and let compounding do the magic

India Macroeconomic Snapshot – April 2025

1. GDP & Growth Drivers

  • India’s economy remains resilient. FY25 GDP is estimated at 6.2–6.5%, supported by robust government spending, manufacturing strength, and export performance.

  • Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.2 in April (10-month high), while services PMI stayed strong at 58.5, indicating continued economic momentum.

 

2. Inflation & Liquidity

  • CPI Inflation dropped to 3.16% in April, a near 6-year low, led by easing food prices—well below RBI’s 4% target.

  • WPI Inflation cooled further to 2.05%, aided by softening food and fuel prices despite higher manufacturing costs.

  • Liquidity improved sharply: April average system liquidity turned positive at ₹1.4 lakh crore, supported by government spending and RBI’s ₹1.25 lakh crore OMO operations

 

3. Monetary Policy

  • RBI cut the repo rate to 6.0% (25 bps reduction in April), shifting to an accommodative stance.

  • Governor’s commentary signals the next move could only be either a pause or further rate cuts.

 

4. Trade & Currency

  • Exports hit a record $825 bn in FY25, up 6% YoY, despite a wider trade deficit of $22 bn in March.

  • The INR appreciated to an average of ₹85.54/USD in April (vs ₹86.64 in March), aided by easing dollar strength and robust forex reserves (~$640 bn)

Equity Market Highlights – April 2025

1. Market Recovery

  • After Feb-March volatility, April saw broad-based gains:

    • Sensex: +3.65% | Nifty 50: +3.46%

    • Midcap Index: +3.26% | Smallcap Index: +1.63%

       

2. Sector Performance

  • Top Gainers:

    • Consumer Durables +5.65%

    • Oil & Gas +5.40%

    • FMCG +5.17%

  • Laggards:

    • Metals -5.76%

    • IT -2.97%

    • Power -4.3%

       

3. Valuation Insights

  • Nifty 50 P/E at ~19.5x, still below its long-term average (~24x), presenting attractive large-cap entry points.

  • Mid & small caps, despite correction, continue to trade at a premium, requiring selective exposure.

Fixed Income & Currency

1. Yields & Spreads

  • 10-yr G-sec yield eased to 6.36% in April (from 6.58% in March), driven by:

    • Cooling inflation

    • RBI’s accommodative stance

    • INR appreciation

       

2. SDL & Corporate Bond

  • SDL yields eased to 6.67% (vs 6.96% in March).

  • AAA PSU bond yields closed lower (6.96%–7.08% range).

Global Snapshot – April 2025

1. U.S.

  • GDP contracted -0.3% in Q1, primarily due to a sharp drop in net exports (tariff impact).

  • April CPI cooled to 2.3%, though 1-year inflation expectations rose to 6.2%—indicating “last-mile” inflation stickiness.

  • Fed kept rates unchanged, watching inflationary trends post-tariffs.

     

2. China

  • Cut rates and lowered reserve ratios, injecting $139 bn to offset export drag from U.S. tariffs.

  • Exports surged 8.1%, driven by Southeast Asian and European demand.

3. Global Markets

  • Risk assets rebounded with easing tariff concerns:

    • Japan +19%, Germany +18%, India +11% MoM

    • Trade tensions, regionalization, and inflation remain key risks globally

Key Trends to Watch – Q2FY25 (April–June)

  • Rate Cut Potential: Further 25–50 bps easing likely by RBI in CY25.

  • Consumption Uplift: Boost from tax cuts and rural demand revival.

  • Capex-Led Growth: Strong public infra push; private capex pickup expected.

  • Trade Frictions: Tariffs may dampen global trade.

  • Valuations: Opportunities in large caps and select defensives

Investment Strategy – May 2025

✅ What Looks Attractive

  • Large Cap, Flexi Cap, Large & Mid Cap Funds: Attractive valuations and scalability.

  • Balanced Advantage / Multi Asset Funds: Hedge volatility with dynamic equity-debt exposure.

  • Themes to Watch: Healthcare, Consumption, PSU Banks (tactically), Digital Infrastructure.

     

⚠️ Risk-Controlled Approach

  • Mid/Small Caps: Prefer SIP/STP routes for gradual re-entry.

  • Focus on Asset Rebalancing: Based on personal goals, not market noise

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