Track your Portfolio

Login / Sign Up

Author: Mayank Mehta

Posted on

NSE – A Potential Multibagger Unfolding in the Unlisted Realm

In light of the recent multibagger listing of Tata Technologies, with an impressive gain of 140% (IPO Price: 500, Listing Price: 1200), investors are understandably in search of the next lucrative opportunity in the IPO market. While it is crucial to exercise prudence amid such market euphoria, it is equally important not to overlook potential opportunities.

 

At our firm, we have consistently managed client funds with a conservative approach, yet delivering a healthy alpha over benchmarks. As a testament to our success, our assets under management have increased 3X in the last 2 years.

 

Recently, we identified a compelling opportunity in the unlisted space – NSE (National Stock Exchange). In the following paragraphs, we aim to delve into the fundamentals of this potential investment. It’s important to note that the information provided does not constitute guidelines or recommendations for any specific course of action. It is essential for investors to conduct their due diligence and understand that the information presented here is for informational purposes only.

Key Facts about NSE:

  1. Incorporation: NSE was established in 1992 and received recognition as a stock exchange from SEBI in April 1993, commencing operations in 1994.

  2. Global Ranking: NSE is currently ranked as the third-largest stock exchange globally in terms of the number of equity trades.

  3. Financial Performance: Between FY19 and FY23, NSE exhibited a remarkable revenue growth, outpacing the global average by 3.5 times, and a profit growth of 10.6 times.

  4. Corporate Structure: NSE boasts 16 subsidiaries, reflecting a diversified and robust business model.

  5. Investor Confidence: Noteworthy investments by Morgan Stanley and Citibank in 2007, when the market cap stood at 10,000 crores, have yielded exceptional returns. Today, the market cap has soared to around 1.7 lakh crores, representing a remarkable 17x increase over 16 years, with a commendable 22% IRR excluding dividends.

  6. Market Outlook: According to Prabhudas Liladher, NSE stands among the most prominent unlisted stocks in India.

Healthy Financial Growth:

 

Over the last eight years, NSE has experienced a fivefold increase in revenue and a eleven fold increase in profits with a healthy operating profit margin of 80% (FY23)

A robust and healthy increase in dividend payout serves as an indicator of financial strength.

Why NSE?

 

Recently, the number of unique clients at NSE surpassed the 8 crore mark. According to various reports, this figure is anticipated to double in the next 3-4 years. The increase in clients is evident in the substantial rise in turnover.

Regardless of whether a client realizes profits or not, charges from the government, broker, and exchange are inevitable. The brokerage industry is highly competitive, and the shares of government are not available. Consequently, investing in the exchange remains the primary option.

Shareholding pattern:

 

We were genuinely surprised to see the list of investors in NSE.

Sixty percent of NSE is held by top-notch institutions, offering a reassuring level of comfort. Additionally, some of the most prominent investors maintain significant holdings in NSE:

Valuations:

 

Valuation stands as a paramount factor in the evaluation of any potential investment.

 

Currently, NSE is trading at approximately Rs. 3500 in the unlisted market. Considering the FY23 earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 148, the P/E ratio is calculated at around 24.

 

Comparison with peers:

 

Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE):

 

In comparison to BSE, NSE surpasses its counterpart by 10X across various dimensions. Presently, BSE trades at a P/E ratio of 46 on the bourses. Applying a similar multiple to NSE suggests a potential trading value of approximately Rs. 7500 in the public market.

 

BSE went public with an IPO at Rs. 806 in 2017. As of the current date, it is trading at Rs. 4600 (Bonus pre-adjusted), marking an approximate sixfold increase in six years. Notably, at the time of its IPO, BSE maintained a comparable P/E ratio of 23. The growth not only reflects an increase in earnings but also a P/E rerating over the years.

We have identified two major opportunities:

  1. SEBI has proposed an extension of trading hours for derivatives until 11 PM. This potential adjustment could lead to increased turnover, consequently resulting in higher revenue for the exchanges.

  2. The NSE stands to derive significant advantages from its association with the Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (Gift City). Positioned as an international financial hub, Gift City offers NSE the prospect of heightened global connectivity and increased trading volumes. The diverse range of financial instruments supported in Gift City provides an avenue for NSE to expand its product portfolio and attract a more varied investor base.

Risks:

 

Every investment inherently carries risks, and in the context of NSE, two key risks have been identified.

 

  1. There is an ongoing colocation case with the Supreme Court. NSE emerged victorious in the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) in February 2023; however, the matter escalated to the Supreme Court, which affirmed SAT’s decision in April 2023. Subsequently, SEBI appealed the decision, leading to a hearing in November 2023. The Supreme Court requested additional information, and the next hearing is scheduled for March 2024.

     

  2. There is a risk associated with the regulatory stance of SEBI regarding significant retail participation in derivatives. SEBI may introduce guidelines restricting such participation, adding an element of uncertainty to the market.

     

    These factors underscore the importance of careful consideration and risk management in investment decisions involving NSE.

Posted on

MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK- NOV’23

World’s Most Expensive Stock – A Tale of MistakeTranscending into Masterstroke

In the 1989 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett candidly addressed his mistakes of preceding 25 years, identifying the acquisition of control in Berkshire Hathaway as a pivotal misjudgment. Despite recognizing the challenges in its textile manufacturing business, he was tempted by the seemingly attractive price of $14 in 1965.

 

Buffett coined the term “cigar butt approach” to describe this strategy, wherein one acquires a stock at a low price with the intention of selling it for a modest profit, even if the long-term performance of the business is suboptimal. However, Buffett acknowledged the inherent flaws in this strategy, emphasizing that in challenging businesses, solving one problem often gives rise to another—akin to the perpetual presence of cockroaches in a kitchen. Moreover, any initial advantage gained is swiftly eroded by the business’s low returns.

 

Recognizing the shortcomings of the cigar butt approach, Buffett advocated a shift towards acquiring businesses with excellent return on equity and promising long-term prospects.

 

Early on, he implemented this revised strategy, strategically acquiring various businesses under the Berkshire umbrella. Over the ensuing 88 years, Buffett successfully transformed Berkshire from a loss-making textile company into one of the largest reinsurance and investment entity, boasting substantial stakes in industry giants such as Apple, Coca-Cola, and American Express. Notably, the share price appreciated from $19 to an impressive $566,570.00 (Rs. 4.8 crore)– yielding an annual return of over 20% for nearly 9 decades, solidifying Berkshire Hathaway’s status as one of the most valuable stocks.

 

A profound quote from Buffett encapsulates the essence of his strategic wisdom: “Time is the friend of wonderful business and enemy of mediocre.“

Quote of the month

As I’ve come to discover, investing is about much more than money. So as your wealth grows, I hope you will also come to realize that the money is largely irrelevant. And what you will want to do with the bulk of your wealth is give it back to society.

—Guy Spier, Founder, Aquamarine Fund

From the global leaders:

 

“Why India Inc is better placed among emerging markets”: The Hindu

 

“Most Americans I know with money want to invest in India”: Zerodha CEO Nithin Kamath

 

“Move aside, China. India will drive Asia’s growth in the next few years”: S&P Global

Economic Indicators Overview:

 

The Indian economy exhibits promising signs with elevated levels of Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections, a surge in festive season demand, stable retail inflation, subdued input inflation, expanding core sector outputs, and heightened credit growth.

 

Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November 2023 stood at 56, marking an improvement from the 8-month low of 55.5 recorded in October 2023. This indicates the sector’s sustained expansion for the 29th consecutive month, driven by reduced price pressures and increased demand from clients.

 

Core Sector Production: In October 2023, the index of eight core sector industries, including Natural Gas, Coal, Refinery Products, Crude Oil, Cement, Electricity, Steel, and Fertilizers, experienced a robust growth of 12.1%. This follows an 8.1% jump in September 2023.

 

Services PMI: India’s service sector activity expanded at its lowest pace in November, falling to 56.9 as compared to 58.4 in October.

 

GST Collection: November 2023 saw GST collections amounting to INR 1.68 trillion, indicating a significant YoY increase of 15%. This marked the twenty-first consecutive month of collections surpassing the INR 1.4 trillion mark, following the record collections of INR 1.87 trillion in April 2023. Collections for 6 out of 8 months in this fiscal year crossed INR 1.6 trillion.

 

Inflation: October 2023 witnessed a drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate to a four-month low, settling at 4.87%, down from 5.02% in August 2023. The deceleration in the CPI rate was attributed to a slowdown in price rises for housing, clothing, and footwear. Meanwhile, food inflation remained elevated and unchanged, registering at 6.61%.

 

Foreign Exchange Reserves: India’s foreign exchange reserves continued to remain high for the straight third week and rose to more than a four-month high of $604.04 billion as of December 1.

Equity Market Overview:

 

  • In November, India’s NIFTY index concluded on a positive note, recording a month-on-month growth of 5.5%.

  • Outperforming the large-cap index, the BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices displayed robust performances, registering gains of 9.6% and 9.4%, respectively.

  • Sector-wise, the top performers for the month were Realty, Oil & Gas, Healthcare, and Power indices, posting impressive returns of +18.9%, +12.7%, +11.4%, and +11.0%, respectively. Notably, all 13 of BSE’s sectoral indices closed the month in positive territory.

  • Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a positive trend in equity flows for November, with a net influx of +$1.1 billion, rebounding from the -$2.9 billion recorded in October 2023. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued to be net buyers of Indian equities, contributing +$1.5 billion compared to the -$3.4 billion in the previous month. Year-to-date figures indicate that Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) net buying stands at US$14.2 billion, while DIIs have invested US$20.5 billion in stocks.

  • In a remarkable achievement, Mutual Funds’ Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) reached an unprecedented milestone, reaching Rs. 17,073 crore for the first time.

     

Fixed Income:

 

  • During the early December policy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the status quo on the policy rate and left the monetary stance unchanged, aligning with consensus expectations. While emphasizing the gradual decline in the inflation outlook and a soft core inflation print, the RBI expressed caution regarding the potential impact of recurring food shocks on headline inflation prints. The RBI revised the economic growth projection for FY24 upward to 7% (from the previous estimate of 6.5%) while maintaining the FY24 inflation projections at 5.4%.

  • The 10-year Government Securities (G-sec) yield, which fluctuated between 7.35% and 7.39% in October, opened the month at 7.36% but gradually decreased to the range of 7.24-7.28% during the month. The 10-year G-sec closed the month at 7.28% (compared to 7.35% in Oct 2023 and 7.21% at the end of Sep 2023).

  • In November 2023, core liquidity (comprising system liquidity and Government balances) declined from 3.3 trillion in October 2023 to 2.5 trillion by the end of November, attributed to festive season demand and credit uptake.

Way ahead:

 

  • Market sentiment in the equity space improved as risk aversion decreased, supported by positive news globally and locally. Factors such as the deceleration in US inflationary expectations and declining oil prices, despite production cuts and geopolitical tensions, contributed to the positive sentiment.

  • On the domestic front, activity indicators remained buoyant, and the corporate results season witnessed growth in profitability driven by lower costs. While overall revenue growth remained relatively muted, expectations are for improvement in the coming quarters. Businesses dependent on rural areas experienced ongoing stress. The Reserve Bank of India raised concerns about retail unsecured credit and increased capital requirements for banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs).

  • Looking ahead, the sentiment appears positive, supported by election results in a few states, instilling expectations of political continuity in the upcoming general elections. However, valuations remain elevated compared to long-term averages, and geopolitical challenges persist, potentially impacting the growth trajectory.

  • We believe that Large Cap-oriented strategies across Large Cap and Flexi/Multi Cap categories seem well-positioned, while asset allocation products can aid in managing downside risks.

Posted on

Healthcare may be the new IT

Nilesh Shah, Managing Director of Kotak Mutual Fund, recently emphasized that the Indian healthcare sector is on the verge of robust long-term growth. This growth is fueled by domestic demand, escalating exports, and the transition from unorganized to organized healthcare services. Changing demographics and lifestyles are anticipated to further drive the demand for healthcare services.

 

Let’s delve into the Indian medical industry and explore its promising prospects.

India is a dominant player in global pharma industry:

  1. 3rd largest in pharma production by volume

  2. 200+ countries served

  3. 60% of global vaccine supply

  4. 20% of the global supply of generics.

  5. 40% of generic supply in the U.S.

  6. 25% of all medicine in the UK

  7. 50% of Africa’s requirement for generics

  8. US FDA: 2nd highest approved sites

Foreign Medical tourists grew 30% CAGR during 2014-19 and are expected to grow 4x from pre-pandemic levels by 2030 (0.7mn to 3mn). Affordable and quality treatment makes India a Favored Destination:

Out of 75,000 Indian trained doctors working in OECD Countries :

  1. ~2/3rds are settled in the United States

  2. 19,000 are in the UK.

 

Further, India has the highest number of medical colleges in the world.

API: backbone of successful pharma growth:

 

Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) serves as the biologically active component of a drug, akin to its raw material. India proudly stands as the world’s 3rd largest API producer, boasting over 500 API manufacturers and commanding an 8% share in the global API industry.

 

Several key factors are expected to drive the growth of API further:

  1. Reduced Dependence on China

  2. PLI Incentives Offered by the Government

  3. Rising Demand for Formulations

  4. Global Contract Manufacturing Opportunities

CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization): Outsourcing as an opportunity has a large Total Addressable/Available Market:

  • Drug lifecycle entails a long drawn process of discovery and development stages, followed by commercial manufacturing

  • Above involves high failure probabilities, forcing global Big Pharma to outsource (in part or full) drug lifecycle stages to CDMOs

  • Indian pharma companies are now playing pivotal role in driving global innovation through the CDMO route

Biosimilars is still an untapped long term growth lever for Indian companies:

  • Biologics adoption in global pharma is progressing rapidly as such drugs address unmet needs (e.g., oncology) and are less toxic

  • Half of today’s top selling drugs are biologics

  • Various Indian companies are investing to develop biosimilars, which are generic equivalents of biologic drugs

Rising longevity, rise in chronic diseases and growing elderly population will lead to increased healthcare spend over the long term

 

The world is experiencing an aging demographic shift:

  • In 2021, 1 in 10 people were aged above 65 years.

  • By 2030 (expected), 1 in 6 people will be aged above 65 years.

     

It has been observed that medical expenses increase rapidly with age, with per capita spending rising from $16,977 to $32,903 as a person ages from 60 years to 85 years.

The boom in the Healthcare Sector parallels that of the IT Sector:

  1. The initial wave of the IT boom was propelled by the low cost of software and manpower, akin to the current situation in the healthcare sector where the affordability of medicines and medical solutions is driven by the process patents held by Indian companies.

  2. The growth of the IT industry in the 2000s was fueled by the export of IT products and the establishment of India as an outsourcing hub. This mirrors the present state of the healthcare sector, which is experiencing growth through the export of generic medicines.

  3. Scalability played a crucial role in the expansion of the IT sector, and similarly, there is significant potential for scalability in healthcare products, particularly in specialized care and hospital services.

In conclusion, it is reasonable to assert that the Indian healthcare system in the immediate and medium term is undergoing a significant transformation from its historical norms. Fundamentally, it will embrace greater technological innovation, extending healthcare services directly to people in their homes or clinics, resulting in a more personalized and affordable experience. For consumers, this shift promises enhanced access to healthcare and improved service quality. In summary, the Indian healthcare system is poised for a promising and bright future.

Posted on

Navigating the Manufacturing Boom in India

The Indian manufacturing sector is currently experiencing substantial transformations driven by a convergence of factors including evolving skill requirements, government policies, technological advancements, and global trends. Its significance in shaping a country’s GDP and generating employment opportunities cannot be overstated.

To adapt to the evolving landscape, numerous multinational companies are strategically implementing the ‘plus one’ strategy. This approach involves diversifying production and supply chain operations, thereby reducing dependence on manufacturing solely in one country or geography.

 

India’s manufacturing sector is poised for significant growth, attributed to a combination of factors such as a large and youthful population, a rapid digital revolution, increasing urbanization, and a favorable business environment.

India’s manufacturing sector stands out as a promising powerhouse for several compelling reasons:

  1. Government Initiatives: The Indian government has introduced the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, a strategic move to attract investments in critical manufacturing segments such as automotive, semiconductor, mobile phones, green energy, and more. This initiative serves as a catalyst for industry growth.

     

  2. Global Investments: Several global industry leaders have committed substantial investment plans in India, establishing new manufacturing sites. This trend not only enhances reliability but also adds resilience to India’s manufacturing ecosystem, making it an attractive destination for multinational corporations.

     

  3. Reform-driven Organizational Growth: Ongoing reforms, including the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the establishment of a robust digital payment system, and other systemic changes over the past few years, have contributed to the industry’s enhanced organization. These reforms have streamlined processes and fostered a more efficient business environment.

     

  4. Geopolitical and Economic Trends: India is strategically positioned to capitalize on the current geopolitical and economic trends driving the diversification of Asia’s manufacturing supply chain. With a substantial working-age population and a well-established digital infrastructure, India emerges as a singular market offering a scale comparable to that of China in the long term.

     

  5. Competitive Labor Market: Boasting a population of approximately 1.4 billion, India is not only the world’s most populous country but is also undergoing a demographic boom. This demographic dividend contributes to a competitive and dynamic labor market, providing a significant advantage for manufacturers in terms of scale and diversity.

The “China +1” strategy has emerged as a pivotal paradigm shift for global companies that historically made substantial investments in China over the past three decades.  The allure of China’s low labor and manufacturing costs, coupled with its expansive consumer market, resulted in a concentration of business interests in the country.

 

The China+1 strategy gained momentum swiftly, driven by the US-China trade war, escalating political uncertainties in China, and the supply chain disruptions induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Faced with these challenges, global companies sought to diversify their operations beyond China to mitigate risks and enhance resilience.

 

The “China +1” approach presents a significant opportunity for India. Notably, between 2015 and 2021, China’s share in US imports experienced a decline of 367 basis points, whereas India’s share witnessed a notable increase of 58 basis points. This shift underscores India’s growing prominence as an attractive alternative for global businesses seeking to diversify their supply chains and reduce dependence on a single manufacturing hub.

Aggressive Government support and policy reforms

 

India’s manufacturing landscape is experiencing a robust transformation, driven by proactive government support and policy reforms. The National Manufacturing Policy, with its ambitious goal of elevating manufacturing’s GDP share to 25% by 2025, serves as a guiding force in shaping the sector’s trajectory.

 

At the forefront of this initiative is the ‘Make in India‘ campaign, spanning 25 economic sectors. Complemented by the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, offering substantial incentives ranging from 4-6% on incremental sales, these programs present a compelling proposition for new business ventures. The strategic alignment of these initiatives underscores the government’s commitment to fostering a conducive environment for industrial growth.

 

The impact of these concerted efforts is vividly evident in the remarkable growth of India’s manufacturing sector, which surged by an impressive 210% in FY22. This surge not only attests to the effectiveness of the government’s policies but also highlights the attractiveness of India as a destination for businesses looking to thrive in a supportive and incentivized manufacturing ecosystem.

Over the last two decades, the manufacturing sector has experienced a significant decline in market share within GDP and stock market indices, losing ground to the service sector. Despite confronting numerous crises, the manufacturing sector has demonstrated improvements in key structural indicators such as return on capital employed (ROCE), working capital investment, and cash flow utilization.

 

Looking ahead, with unforeseen expansion anticipated in manufacturing over the next few years, driven by both domestic consumption and exports, there is a potential for the revival of the manufacturing sector. Over the next 5-10 years, the manufacturing sector has the opportunity to reclaim lost market share, both in GDP and equity indices. This resurgence is contingent upon sustained positive trends in structural data and the sector’s ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the evolving economic landscape.

Posted on

Mastering the Art of Investing: 6000+ Pages summarized in one email

Responding to numerous requests from fellow investors, colleagues and clients, we have decided to distill the invaluable lessons gleaned from the most successful investors in the field. In an effort to share these insights, we are consolidating over 6000 pages of investing wisdom in one blog.

  1. Stock: A stock is seen by many as a cryptic piece of paper whose prices wiggles around continuously.

     

    That’s one way to look at stocks. A far better way, suggested by Benjamin Graham, is to think of them as an ownership stake in an existing business. For eg- One of the reasons to invest in McDonalds stock is to have ownership in 40,000 real estate properties globally as McDonalds owns all the outlets run by its franchises on which it earns rent as well as royalty. The stock has appreciated from $2 in 1983 to $262 in 2023 – a yearly return of 18% excluding dividends.

     

    When investing in stocks, you’ve got the company’s growth on your side. You’re a partner a prosperous and expanding business (if chosen right).

  1. Risk: Investing consists of exactly one thing: dealing with the future. And because none of us can know the future with certainty, risk is inescapable. Hence, great investing requires both generating returns and controlling risk.

  2. Respect uncertainty: Disorder, chaos, volatility and surprises are not bug in the system but the features. We can’t predict the timing, triggers, or precise nature of these disruptions but we need to expect them and prepare from them.

  3. Risk vs. volatility: Risk entails the potential for a permanent loss of capital and is distinct from volatility, which refers to the temporary fluctuation in share prices.

  4. Stock vs. bond: Equity investments appear risky due to the volatility in prices, while fixed income securities appear safe as their prices do not fluctuate. In reality, the factor of inflation makes the fixed income much riskier.

  1. Market corrections are routine: The future may be unpredictable but this recurring process of boom and bust is remarkably predictable. Once we recognize this underlying pattern, we are no longer flying blind. You can’t know the future but it helps to know the past.

  2. Market oscillates between greed and fear: Market is made up of emotional people whose decisions are based upon the prevailing sentiments in the environment. At times they display greed and at other times they display fear. Bouts of greed and fear make the stock prices volatile. An investor with poor emotional quotient gets trapped in such volatility to lose fortunes.

Indian equity markets witness 10-20% temporary declines almost every year yet 3 out of 4 years ended with positive returns.

  1. Margin of safety: One should buy a stock only when it’s selling for much less than your conservative estimate of its worth. The gap between a company’s intrinsic value and its stock price provides a margin of safety.

  2. Buying price matters: Buying an exceptional business at an exorbitant price makes it a mediocre or even bad investment and buying a mediocre business at a bargain price makes it a good investment.

  3. Factors when buying a stock:

    a.      Quality of management

    b.      Sustainability of business

    c.      Good cash flows

    d.      Reasonable return on investment

    e.      Right valuations

  4. Only a few winners in portfolio: If six out of ten stocks perform as expected, you should be thankful. That is all it takes to produce an evitable record on wall street.

  5. Investment styles:

    1. Value: Investors aim to come up with a security’s current intrinsic value and buy when the price Is lower

    2. Growth: Investors try to find securities whose value will increase rapidly in the future i.e. companies having a bright future.

  1. Processes are more important than the outcome: In the stock markets, a small percentage of people end up being successful in the long run whereas a majority of the people, in spite of being successful in the short run, end up losing money in the long run.

  2. Four valuation techniques: 1.Discounted cash flow analysis calculating NPV of company’s future earnings 2. Company’s relative value, comparing it to price of similar businesses 3. Company’s acquisition value, figuring what an informed buyer might pay for it 4. Liquidation value, analyzing what it would be worth if it closed and sold its assets.

  3. IPOs: Majority of the IPOs are against investor interest as most of listing happens during a bull run and investment bankers dump stocks at outrageous valuations.

Returns:

  1. For an investor, there are two components of stock returns:

a. Dividends

b. Capital appreciation

  1. In the long run, Stocks are a slave of corporate earnings

  2. Sources of returns: The returns from equities are dependent on two sources:

    a.      Fundamental: Growth in Earnings per Share (EPS)

    b.      Speculative: P/E expansion and contraction

19. Time in the market > Timing the market: Warren Buffet is worth 118$. of That 117B$ was accumulated after his 50th birthday.

20. Longevity of returns > % returns in short period: Good investing isn’t necessarily about earning the highest returns, because the highest returns tend to be one-off hits that can’t be repeated. It’s about earning pretty good returns that you can stick with and which can be repeated for the longest period of time.

  1. Emotional Quotient > Intelligence Quotient: Investing is a field of simplifications and approximations rather than of extreme precision and quantitative wizardry. I also have realized that investing is less a field of finance and more a field of human behaviour. The key to investing success is not how much you know but how you behave. Your behaviour will matter far more than your fees, your asset allocation, or your analytical abilities.

  2. Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple.

  3. Forecasting: If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting what’s going to happen to the stock market (Benjamin Graham). There are 60,000 economists in the US, many of them employed full time to forecast recessions and interest rates, and if they could do it successfully twice in a row, they’d all be millionaires by now. But most of them are still employed. (Peter Lynch)

  4. Leverage: If you are leveraged five times of your capital, a 20% move in your preferred direction can double your capital, but a similar move in the opposite direction can wipe you out.

  5. When to review your portfolio: Check the portfolio at most a month: 1. if the fundamentals are better – increase allocation 2. if the fundamentals are weak decrease the allocation to equities 3. if it’s the same, don’t do anything

  6. Equity mutual funds are the perfect solution for people who want to own stocks without doing their own research. Investors in equity funds have prospered handsomely in the past, and there’s no reason to doubt they will continue to prosper in the future.

Posted on

Monthly market update & outlook- Oct’23

Rs. 2,125 crore Pizzas

On May 22, 2010, a programmer named Laszlo Hanyecz made history by completing the first-ever documented real-world transaction with Bitcoin. What was the purchase, you might ask? Two pizzas. The astonishing part? He paid a staggering 10,000 bitcoins for those pizzas.

 

At the time, the exchange seemed inconspicuous, with a value of around $41 USD. However, fast forward to today, and the value of Bitcoin has skyrocketed, transforming those 10,000 bitcoins into a jaw-dropping fortune (Rs. 2,125 crore). At the Bitcoin all-time high, those Bitcoins were valued at Rs. 5,175 crore. What started as a simple transaction for a meal has become a symbol of the unpredictable journey and transformative power of digital currencies.

 

We find this tale both intriguing and emblematic of the ever-changing landscape in which we operate. It highlights the potential of emerging technologies to reshape industries and redefine value.

Quote of the month

Over the long run, well run businesses create a lot of value irrespective of the macroeconomic environment. Do we seriously think Amazon, JP Morgan, Michelin, Nestle, Siemens, Tesco, Walmart, Zara & other excellent businesses are held hostage to inflation and fiscal deficit? If the business & stock price performance of exceptional companies is immune to macroeconomic perturbations, aren’t we, as investors in those companies, better off ignoring the economy?

 

—Pulak Prasad, founder of Singapore based Nalanda Capital

From the global leaders:

The macroeconomic landscape in India continues to demonstrate resilience and robustness across key indicators:

 

Manufacturing PMI: In October 2023, the Manufacturing PMI registered a value of 55.5, marking a slight decline from September’s 57.5. Despite this decrease, the index has sustained its expansionary phase (>50) for the 28th consecutive month. The deceleration in output expansion, the slowest in 8 months, can be attributed to a modest increase in new orders, which reached a 12-month low.

 

Services PMI: The Services PMI for the same period recorded a value of 58.4, reflecting a decrease from September’s 61.0. Nevertheless, the index has maintained its growth momentum for the 27th consecutive month, consistently staying above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction.

 

GST Collection: In October 2023, GST collections amounted to INR 1.72 trillion, marking a YoY increase of 13%. This achievement marks the twentieth consecutive month of collections surpassing the INR 1.4 trillion threshold, making it the second-highest recorded since the inception of the regime. Notably, the record collection of INR 1.87 trillion in April 2023 remains the highest.

 

Inflation: The CPI inflation rate for September 2023 eased below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) comfort zone of 6%, settling at 5.02%. This marks the first time in three months that inflation has dipped below the target. The deceleration in the CPI rate can be attributed to a slowdown in food basket inflation, which registered 6.56% in September 2023, compared to a 9.94% rise in August 2023. Meanwhile, WPI inflation remained in negative territory, reaching a six-month high of -0.26% in September 2023, a slight increase from August’s -0.52%. Notably, food, fuel, and chemicals continued to experience deflation.

 

Foreign Exchange Reserves: India’s foreign exchange reserves saw a notable increase of $4.7 billion, reaching $590.78 billion and attaining a seven-week high.

 

Trade Deficit: In September 2023, Indian Merchandise Exports experienced a YoY decline of -2.6% to $34.48 billion, while Imports growth contracted by -15.04% YoY to $53.84 billion. The strengthening of the US dollar contributed to a narrowing of India’s trade deficit by $19.37 billion.

 

Credit Growth: As of October 6, 2023, Scheduled Commercial Bank Credit growth reached 19.32% YoY, surpassing the observed YoY growth of 17.93% on October 7, 2022.

Equity Market Overview:

  • The BSE SENSEX (-3.0%) fell in October, in tandem with other benchmark Indian indices.

  • BSE Mid-cap underperformed the SENSEX and was down -3.4%. The BSE Small Cap index outperformed, with a fall of -1.7% over the month.

  • Sector-wise, Realty, FMCG, Auto and consumer durables indices were the top 4 performers over the month, clocking +3.7%, -0.9%, -1.2%, and -2.3%, respectively. The worst performing index was the BSE Power index, which fell by -4.9%.

  • Market breadth declined MoM, with stocks trading above their respective 200-day moving averages declining to 69% from 85% from September 2023, and the advance decline line was down 11% MoM.

  • Net FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) flows into equities were negative for October (-$2.6Bn, following -$1.8 Bn in September 2023). DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) remained net buyers of Indian equities (+$3.4 Bn, from +$2.6 Bn from last month). YTD, FPI net buying stands at US$12.1 Bn, while DIIs have bought stocks worth US$19 Bn.

  • Mutual Funds’ Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) achieved an unprecedented milestone, reaching Rs. 16,928 crore for the first time. SIP contributions since the start of financial year 2024 have surpassed the significant milestone of ₹1 lakh crore

 

Fixed Income:

  • Oct’23 saw fixed income yields rising on backdrop of global cues (sharp rise in geo-political risk, US treasury yields and crude price) & OMO concerns.

  • 10-year G-sec yield (which was moving in the range of 7.20-7.24 at the start of the month), rose sharply, post Israel- Hamas conflict & OMO announcement in RBI Policy, to move in range of 7.35-7.39% during the month. It did ease to 7.30-7.32 range mid-month driven by better-than-expected monthly inflation print. 10 yr Gsec closed the month at 7.35% (Sep 2023 end: 7.21%). Money market rates remained elevated during the month on tight liquidity driven primarily by festive season and higher government balances. 10-year Term premia (10 yr over 365 days) rose to 21 bps (Sep 2023: 15 bps).

  • October 2023 saw complete reversal of Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio (ICRR) hike leading to increase in liquidity during the month. Core system liquidity (system liquidity + Government balances) improved from 3 trillion in Sep 2023 to 3.3 trillion by end of Oct-23, despite festive season demand.

November 2023 presents a set of critical events to monitor:

 

War and Oil: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas poses a potential risk for equity markets. The threat of contagion and disruptions in oil supply, compounded by cuts from major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, may introduce heightened volatility in oil prices.

 

Earnings Season: The current Q2FY24 earnings season in India has generally exceeded expectations. However, the market remains cautious about post-results price performances. The remaining results will likely influence earnings revisions across the spectrum of Indian stocks.

 

State Election Outcomes: Elections in five states (Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Mizoram) in November 2023, ahead of the 2024 general elections, are crucial for shaping public sentiment. These outcomes will be closely watched as a significant factor impacting equity markets.

 

Festive Season Demand: November 2023 anticipates a boost in India’s private consumption and demand with the onset of the festive season, starting with Diwali. This period is expected to witness increased festive demand across the country.

 

Central Banks Commentary: Notable actions by central banks include the US Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at a 22-year high, the Bank of Japan widening its yield target band, and the European Central Bank holding rates steady after ten consecutive hikes in October 2023. The Reserve Bank of India, in its October 2023 meeting, kept the key policy repo rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time. Caution in response to energy and food inflation shocks was evident, suggesting potential divergences in policy stances in the coming months.

 

Market View:

 

Global economic trends pose challenges, with geopolitical events, high US bond yields, and slowing growth in the developed world presenting near-term headwinds. Conversely, India’s macroeconomic indicators remain robust, featuring strong manufacturing growth and improving economic activity, despite slowing inflation.

 

Considering local and global factors, it’s notable that the current market enthusiasm might be overlooking events like forthcoming elections and global developments such as rising crude oil prices. Large Caps, along with Asset Allocation products like Multi Asset Funds and Balanced Advantage, seem relatively well-positioned. Investors, wary of market swings, may consider a staggered approach aligned with their risk appetite and investment goals.

Posted on

The World Does Not End, and Equities Never Die

In a world filled with uncertainties and rapid changes, one thing remains constant: the persistence of human ingenuity and innovation. The adage “the world does not end, and equities never die” serves as a reminder of our ability to adapt, evolve, and find new opportunities even in the face of adversity.

A Resilient World

“The world does not end” is a statement that reflects the undeniable fact that no matter how dire circumstances may seem, humanity has a remarkable capacity to endure and persevere. Throughout history, we have faced numerous challenges, from wars and economic crises to natural disasters and pandemics. Yet, each time, we have emerged from these trials stronger and more resilient than before.

The global economy, for instance, has weathered its fair share of crises, from the Great Depression of the 1930s to the financial turmoil of 2008. In each case, the world did not come to an end. Instead, it adapted and rebuilt, demonstrating the remarkable resilience of human society.

“Equities never die” refers to the enduring value of assets and investments, especially in the context of financial markets. It emphasizes that, despite market fluctuations and temporary setbacks, long-term investments have historically shown an ability to recover and grow over time.

This concept is particularly relevant in the world of stocks. While stock markets can experience volatility and sharp declines, history has consistently demonstrated their capacity to rebound and reach new heights. This is a reflection of the underlying strength of the Indian economy and the potential for equities to provide substantial returns over extended periods.


Every crisis in the past has been followed by a recovery and further upside.  Sensex (1980-till date):A

India outperformed despite following crises, events and volatility:

 

Episodes of Domestic Political Uncertainty

  • 8 coalition governments

  • 3 different governments between 1996 and 1998

  • A government that lasted only 13 days in 1996

  • Prime Ministers that many have not heard of: H.D. Deve Gowda; I.K. Gujral

  • 17% fall in market in a day due to surprise change of govt in 2004

 

Other India Specific Events from 1998 to 2015

  • US sanctions after India’s nuclear tests, May 1998

  • Limited war with Pakistan in Kargil in 1999

  • Serious stock market scandal in 2001

  • Terrorist attack on Indian parliament in2001

  • 26/11 terrorist attacks in Mumbai

  • Corruption cases & arrest of billionaires/ministers /senior bureaucrats in 2011/12

  • Back-to-back drought years in 2014 and 2015

 

Global Market Crashes and Crises since 1997

  • Asian Crisis in 1997

  • Russian crisis in 1998 (India has had historically strong trading ties with Russia)

  • Bursting of technology bubble in 2000

  • 9/11

  • Global Financial Crisis in 2008

  • Tech sell off, end of QE and rising inflation(since 2022)

 

Recent Key Events Since 2016

  • Demonetization (2016)

  • NBFC Crises (2018/2019)

  • COVID (2020-2022)

  • Lockdowns (2020-2022)

  • Rate hikes globally

There is always a reason not to buy Equities. Yet despite several intermittent crises, Indian Equities have gone up over the long run mirroring earnings growth:

Despite challenges and uncertainties, the Indian stock market continues to evolve and grow. Investors who approach the market with a long-term perspective, diversification, and a thorough understanding of the regulatory landscape can find opportunities amidst the volatility.

 

India’s resilience in the face of crises has been stark, and the clean-up and reforms alongside various crises have set the stage for India to outperform over the coming decades.

Posted on

Global Banking Giants Are Betting Big on India’s Growth Story

India has been structurally outperforming other markets by a significant margin in the past (even in USD terms) 

Prominent global investment banks have recently upgraded India’s status to “overweight” in their portfolios, underlining the nation’s robust economic fundamentals and alluring valuations. This development holds significant promise for both the Indian economy and its capital markets, reflecting the confidence of investment experts in India’s potential for growth in the forthcoming years.

Key statements from investment bankers in recent times include:

  • In October 2023, JP Morgan raised India’s status to “overweight,” citing the nation’s strong GDP growth, appealing risk-adjusted returns, and favorable historical seasonality preceding general elections.

  • CLSA increased India’s portfolio allocation from “40%underweight” to “20% overweight” in October 2023, emphasizing India’s solid economic fundamentals and attractive valuations.

  • Japan’s Nomura adjusted India’s weight from neutral to overweight in October 2023,highlighting India’s robust economic fundamentals and appealing valuation in comparison to other emerging markets.

  • Morgan Stanley upgraded India to “standout overweight, “driven by improvements in relative economic and earnings growth and a macro-stability setup well-suited to navigate a higher real rate environment.

  • The global head of equity strategy at Jefferies elevated India’s weight in the Asia ex-Japan relative portfolio, as detailed in the Greed & Fear note.

  • Goldman Sachs expressed optimism about India’s medium-term growth prospects, recommending foreign investors to increase their exposure to the emerging market due to its stable macroeconomics and strong historical track record.

Among other leading global investment firms, EQT AB from Sweden, Barings in the United States, and BlackRock have all increased their investments in India. Several sovereign wealth funds, including the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Co., and Qatar Investment Authority, have also expanded their investments in India.

This year our clients have inquired about investment opportunities in India at a rate we haven’t seen in over a decade. We view this renewed interest in the country as justified and likely to persist.

-Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth

Implications of these “overweight” ratings are substantial in the long term:

  • Increased Investment: A positive stance from reputable banks can attract more foreign and domestic investors to the Indian stock market. This increased investment can drive up demand for Indian stocks, potentially leading to higher stock prices.

  • Improved Market Sentiment: Favorable outlooks from leading banks can boost investor confidence, leading to higher trading volumes and increased market activity.

  • Access to Capital: Companies listed on the stock exchange may find it easier to raise capital as investors are more willing to buy their shares.

  • Lower Cost of Capital: A positive outlook can result in a lower cost of capital for Indian companies, making it more affordable for them to borrow funds or issue new shares.

  • Sectoral Focus: Investment banks may highlight specific sectors or industries within India that they believe will outperform, leading to increased investment in those areas.

  • Boost in IPO Activity: More companies may choose to go public through initial public offerings (IPOs when they see a favorable investment climate, leading to increased IPO activity on the stock exchange.

  • Market Liquidity: Higher investor participation can increase market liquidity, making it easier for investors to buy and sell stocks.

  • Economic Confidence: A positive outlook from investment banks can boost overall economic confidence and consumer spending, positively impacting the earnings of listed companies.

  • Longer-Term Investments: Investors may consider longer-term investments in Indian stocks based on the favorable outlook, which can lead to a more stable and less speculative market.

  • Market Capitalization Growth: With more investors entering the market, the total market capitalization of the stock exchange can grow, reflecting the overall size and strength of the market.

  • Currency Appreciation: Increased foreign investment can lead to the appreciation of the Indian Rupee, which can further attract foreign investors and provide stability for investors.

  • Research and Analysis: Investment banks with an overweight stance often provide in-depth research and analysis, which can help investors make informed decisions and navigate the Indian stock market effectively.

Posted on

The Hard Decision Warren Buffett Made 30 Years Ago

In the ever-evolving world of finance and investing, one name stands out for its enduring success and wisdom: Warren Buffett. What truly distinguishes him is not solely his remarkable wealth but also the pivotal decisions he has made throughout his illustrious career.

 

One such decision, which has become a remarkable case study in the world of finance, took place in the early 1990s when Warren Buffett faced a critical choice: to invest in stocks or bonds.

 

During that period, a 30-year government bond offered an attractive interest rate of 6.15%, while the dividends from his shortlisted companies, Coca-Cola and American Express, stood at 5.7% and 3.15%,respectively. For many conservative investors, the allure of the higher bond interest rate might have been compelling. However, Warren Buffett, known for his long-term vision and deep understanding of investing dynamics, chose to invest in stocks.

 

Fast forward to today, and the results of that decision are nothing short of remarkable. The bond still holds its original value ($1.3 billion), while the investments in Coca-Cola and American Express have appreciated exponentially. A$1.3 billion investment in Coca-Cola is now valued at $25 billion, and the same $1.3 billion in American Express has grown to $22 billion. Moreover, the dividends generated from these investments today stand at $704 million for Coca-Cola and $302 million for American Express, far surpassing the interest Buffett would have earned today ($80 million) on his bond investment had he made that choice 30 years ago.

In Buffett’s own words, “If you had to choose between buying long-term bonds or equities, I would choose equities in a minute.”

 

This compelling story serves as a testament to the power of long-term investment strategies and the foresight of a true financial genius. It reminds us of the potential rewards that come with investing in stocks when viewed from a perspective that extends beyond the short term.

 

Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions or thoughts on this topic or any other financial matters.

Posted on

MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK – SEPTEMBER’23

India’s bond moment

Indian government bonds have successfully secured a coveted position in JP Morgan’s Emerging Markets bond indices. This accomplishment is a significant milestone for the Indian financial market and holds substantial implications for global investors and the broader economic landscape.

 

JP Morgan, a renowned financial services institution with diverse interests encompassing commercial banking, asset management, and index research and development, curates a suite of bond indices that are tailored to various countries and regions. These indices serve a pivotal role in international finance, akin to the role played by benchmark indices like NIFTY 50 or SENSEX in the equities domain, but with a focus on the fixed-income market.

 

The primary function of these bond indices lies in facilitating international investors’ access to a diverse array of bond offerings from different countries. Until recently, India had not featured within any of JP Morgan’s bond indices. However, this landscape is set to undergo a transformative shift, as India is poised to become an integral component of JP Morgan’s prestigious Emerging Market bond indices.

 

Commencing from June 28, 2024, India will be accorded a 1% weight within the index. This allocation is planned to incrementally increase by 1% each month, culminating in a cap of 10% by March31, 2025. The implications of this development are profound, as it portends a substantial influx of foreign investments into Indian government bonds.

 

Estimations suggest that the inclusion of Indian government bonds in JP Morgan’s indices has the potential to attract a considerable sum. Edelweiss Mutual Fund has reported that JP Morgan’s global bond indices presently account for a substantial US$ 213 billion worth of investments by global investors. It is reasonable to anticipate that a 10%weight allocation could translate to approximately US$ 21 billion.

 

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs has projected an influx of more than $40 billion over the next 18 months. The implications of this development can be viewed through three distinct lenses:

 

1. Deepening of the Bond Market: This development is highly favorable for individuals and institutions with fixed-income portfolios. Foreign investments in Indian bonds have been relatively modest, totaling around $3 billion in 2023. Consequently, an anticipated influx of approximately $40 billion over the next 18 months represents a substantial shift. Additionally, the inclusion of India in JP Morgan’s indices may prompt other leading index providers, such as Bloomberg and FTSE, to follow suit, further expanding the scope of foreign investment in the Indian bond market. It is noteworthy that the Indian government has been actively striving to deepen the country’s bond markets over recent years, evidenced by initiatives such as the launch of Bharat Bond ETFs for retail investors and the establishment of the RBI Retail Direct portal. The magnitude of foreign investments anticipated in the wake of this development can be instrumental in further maturing the Indian bond market.

 

2. Positive Spillover into Equity Markets: The positive implications extend beyond the fixed-income space. Banks in India are prominent investors in government bonds. The expected inflows resulting from the inclusion of Indian government bonds in JP Morgan’s indices can potentially drive up prices of Government Securities (G-Secs). This, in turn, stands to benefit banking institutions over the long term.

 

3. Support for the Rupee: Currency dynamics are also influenced by foreign investments. Inflows of dollars into India tend to strengthen the Indian rupee, while outflows have the opposite effect. With foreign investors poised to invest significantly in Indian government bonds, a corresponding inflow of dollars is anticipated. This has the potential to provide crucial support to the Indian currency, which carries implications for broader economic stability.

 

In conclusion, the inclusion of Indian government bonds in JP Morgan’s Emerging Markets bond indices represents a watershed moment in the international financial landscape. It not only signifies a remarkable step in the globalization of India’s financial markets but also holds the promise of substantial economic benefits, from the deepening of the bond market to positive spillover effects in the equity space and the reinforcement of the Indian rupee.

Financially rich vs. a rich life:

Quote of the month

Doing well with money has a little to do with how smart you are and a lot to do with how you behave.

 

The proper financial mindset is to be scared enough to save for the short run and brave enough to invest for the long run.

 

– Morgan Housel, Partner, Collaborative Fund

From the global leaders:

The Indian macro dataflow has continued to exhibit resilience and strength across various key indicators:

 

  • Manufacturing PMI: In September 2023, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered a value of 57.5. It remained within the expansion zone (>50) for the 27th consecutive month.

  • Services PMI: India’s services sector strengthened further in September, witnessing strongest output in 13 years. India’s services PMI stood at 61 in September, up from 60.1 in August. The reading was above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for a 26th consecutive month.

  • GST Collection: September 2023 witnessed GST collections amounting to Rs. 1.62 trillion, reflecting an 10% year-on-year increase. This achievement marked the nineteenth consecutive month of collections surpassing the Rs. 1.4 trillion threshold.

  • Inflation: On the domestic economy front, the August CPI decreased to 6.83% from 7.44% in July 2023. In August, WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation, although its pace slowed, as it declined to -0.5% compared with -1.4% in July.

  • Foreign Exchange Reserves: India’s forex reserves drop for 4th week, fall to over 5-month low of $586.91 billion.

  • Trade Deficit: India being net importer of oil, high crude prices resulted in rupee depreciation & higher trade deficit. The trade deficit in August was $24.16 billion, almost 17% wider than July’s $20.67 billion gap.

Equity Market Overview:

  • In September, the tug of war between the bulls and the bears intensified after Nifty breached the 20,000 mark on 11th September.

  • The Nifty and the Sensex rose 2% and 1.5% respectively in the month.

  • Midcap outperformed the largecap indices registering 3.7% gains, while smallcap underperformed the largecap indices registering 1.1% gains

  • FIIs had been net buyers since March 2023 but turned major sellers in September with net selling of Rs. 14,768 cr (USD 1.77 Bn).

  • On the sectoral indices front, Power (+7.1%), Metal (+6.4%), Capital Goods (+5.6%), Oil & Gas (+3.1%), Auto (+3.1%), Realty (+3.1%) outperformed the indices while, Consumables (+1.8%), IT (+1.7%), Bankex (+1.6%), FMCG (+1.2%) underperformed the key indices during the month.

  • Mutual Funds’ Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) achieved an unprecedented milestone, reaching Rs. 16,402 crore for the first time. This highlights the strong confidence Indian investors have in equities.

Fixed Income Landscape:

  • Indian bonds were relatively resilient as well, as the announcement of India’s inclusion in JP Morgan GBI-EM bond index helped offset the pressure from rising global yields.

  • Indian 10-year yields still moved higher by 5 bps for the month to end at 7.22% versus 7.16% a month ago.

  • Systematic liquidity continued to be in the deficit in line with reserve banks of India’s objective to ensure tighter front end of the curve. After a brief period of positive liquidity at the beginning of the month the deficit rose to a high of Rs. 1.5TN. The relief on account of I-CRR was negated by tax outflows.

Market Outlook:

  • Concerns have arisen regarding the ‘Goldilocks‘ narrative of the Indian economy due to the convergence of weak global indicators and a softening of domestic macroeconomic factors. In the context of economics, ‘Goldilocks‘ signifies a state in which a nation experiences a period of both ‘High Growth’ and ‘Low Inflation.’

  • Over the long term, it is plausible that India’s ‘Goldilocks’ story will remain resilient. However, in the immediate future, this may not be the case, primarily due to persistently high inflation and a potential softening of economic growth. Several factors contribute to this near-term uncertainty, including the rural-urban growth disparity, the impact of deficient rainfall on inflation and demand, the global economic slowdown affecting exports, and the influence of rising crude oil prices on external sector risks. Consequently, the near-term outlook for the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario appears uncertain.

  • Nevertheless, there are compelling reasons for optimism over the long term. These include a robust capital expenditure (capex) momentum, sustainable government revenues, healthy corporate profitability, a growing emphasis on indigenization, favorable demographic trends, and resilient bank balance sheets. As a result, the long-term economic perspective for India remains bright and clear.

Onesta Capital Ventures is a Multi Family Office based out of Gurugram (India). We aim to provide tailored independent wealth management and other family governance solutions to individuals and corporates.

Download Mobile App

Apple Android
Quick Links
Our Services
Get In Touch

Office Address

207-208, 2nd Floor, Apna Bazar, Gurudwara Road, Gurgaon 122001

Call Us

+91-9810423511

Send us Email

support@onestacapital.in

Facebook Instagram

AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor | ARN-224076 | Initial Date of Registration: 04 March 2022 | Validity: 03 March 2028

Copyright 2022. Onesta Capital Ventures. Disclaimer | Disclosure | Privacy Policy | Terms & Condition