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Month: December 2025

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Google: The Sleeping Giant of Internet & AI

In the world of technology, few companies have demonstrated enduring dominance quite like Google.

 

Microsoft tried to challenge its supremacy through Bing — and failed.
Apple attempted to displace its influence on mobile — and failed.


Warren Buffett famously regretted missing Google’s IPO in 2004. But in one of his final investment moves before retirement, he made it right — by buying into Google.

 

Why?

Unmatched Market Leadership:

90% market share in Search

72% share in mobile OS (Android)

71% share in web browsers (Chrome)

39% share in digital advertising, reaching 90% of internet users

 

In 2025, Google surged 62%, reaching a $3.5 trillion market cap — now the third largest company globally.

Core Business Engines

  • YouTube: Acquired in 2006, now the world’s premier video platform

    • 2.5+ billion monthly active users

    • $36.1 billion in ad revenue (2024), up ~15% YoY

  • Android: Powers over 3 billion devices worldwide

  • Chrome: Dominates the browser market with unmatched user reach

  • Search & Ads: The backbone of the internet, highly profitable and resilient

  • Google Pixel: Fastest-growing premium smartphone in 2025

  • Google Maps: Default global navigation app

  • Google Workspace: Core productivity suite with millions of paying customers

  • Google Cloud: Now with 13% market share, growing rapidly and operating profitably

Next-Gen Bets on the Future

  • Waymo – Autonomous vehicle platform, now running fully driverless operations in U.S. cities

  • Gemini – Google’s next-gen multimodal AI model, outperforming peers in benchmarks

  • TPUs (Tensor Processing Units) – Google’s custom AI hardware powering Gemini and client AI needs

  • DeepMind – Breakthrough AI research team behind AlphaGo and AlphaFold

  • Quantum Computing – Pioneering qubit breakthroughs, with massive long-term potential

  • Verily – Targeting the $1T+ healthtech market with AI-powered care platforms and clinical research tools

Why It’s Unstoppable

  • Google has been refining algorithms and collecting data for 25+ years — its AI lead is unmatched

  • Operates the most-used products across search, video, browser, and mobile

  • Holds $100 billion+ in cash, enabling bold, long-term investment

  • In 2024, Alphabet reported $112.4 billion in operating income, with a 32% margin

To State the Obvious

Google is not just a market leader — it is the infrastructure of the internet. Its competitive moat is so wide, it’s almost uncatchable.

A monopoly in plain sight — powered by the most advanced AI infrastructure on the planet.

 

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Next Market Crash – or Opportunity

One thing that a century of market history teaches us is simple: nothing lasts forever. Markets will rise, markets will fall — and while no one can predict the timing, everyone can prepare.

Despite several intermittent crises, Indian Equities have gone up over the long run mirroring earnings growth (153 times in 39 years).

What Counts as a “Crash”?

 

A meaningful market crash is typically defined as an equity decline of more than 30%.
Anything less is normal volatility.

 

A Look at Past Crashes

 

Market crashes tend to follow a pattern — often triggered by large systemic shocks, many originating in the US:

  • 2001 – Dot-Com Burst: Excessive speculation in internet-based companies.

  • 2008 – Global Financial Crisis: Lehman collapse and widespread leverage in risky mortgage products.

  • 2013–14 – Taper Tantrum: US Fed’s announcement to reduce quantitative easing.

  • 2020 – COVID Crash: A global, unexpected health and economic shutdown

The Repeating Pattern

 

There’s a clear trend: most global crashes have roots in US-driven events. When the US catches a cold, the world usually sneezes.

 

Also, market crashes at an interval of six to seven years, only to recover and make highs in future.

Today, something similar is brewing. The scale of money flowing into US equities on the back of the AI boom is unprecedented — and euphoria always deserves caution.

What Could Trigger the Next Major Fall?

 

A crash can be caused by any major macro dislocation, such as:

  • A situation where the US struggles to service its debt

  • A large-scale geopolitical conflict

  • The US entering a recession

  • AI not delivering the desired results

  • Job creation stagnation due to automation and AI

  • Tariffs pushing up import costs and feeding inflation

  • Slowing growth + rising inflation = potential stagflation

  • Any of these catalysts can cause global ripple effects.

A Word of Caution for Indian Investors

 

Of India’s 20 crore demat accounts, fewer than 1 crore investors have actually witnessed a real market crash. For many new investors, even a 5% decline feels like a major fall.

 

This lack of historical experience can lead to panic at the wrong time — or worse, exiting just before the recovery. On top of that checking investment value very frequently can cause anxiety to begineers.

How to Prepare for a Crash (and Convert It into an Opportunity)

 

 

1. Maintain Adequate Liquidity: Keep 3–6 months of money or 10-15% of portfolio in liquid/ultra-short-term funds. Crashes reward those who have cash.

 

2. Set Up Pre-Defined Buy Zones: Identify high-quality funds or stocks and define levels where you will add. A crash becomes an opportunity only if you act—not react.

 

3. Keep SIPs Running — Never Pause During Falls: Historically, SIPs started during crashes generate the highest long-term IRR. Stopping SIPs at the bottom destroys compounding.

 

4. Diversify Across Equity, Debt & Gold: In crashes, equity falls sharply, but gold and long-duration debt often stabilize or rise. Balanced asset allocation reduces panic.

 

5. Avoid Leverage and High-Risk Positions: Margin trades, options selling without hedges, or over-leveraged real estate positions can ruin portfolios in downturns.

 

6. Focus on Quality, Not Noise: Avoid trying to “time the bottom.” Use volatility to accumulate India-focused, earnings-driven, sector-diversified portfolios.

 

7. Prepare Mentally: Corrections of 20–30% are normal in long-term investing. Accepting this reduces panic and prevents premature exits

Closing Thought

 

History doesn’t repeat exactly — but it rhymes.


Crashes are painful for the unprepared, but they are the greatest wealth-creation events for those who stay disciplined.

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Trump Trades: Crypto, AI & Minerals

Donald J. Trump has always viewed the world through a businessman’s lens—even in politics. With a personal net worth exceeding $7 billion, he has consistently used market dynamics to further his broader agenda of “Making America Great Again.”

 

Since returning to power, Trump’s administration has adopted an unapologetically strategic approach: channeling capital into sectors critical to U.S. dominance—ranging from Bitcoin and AI to critical minerals and quantum computing. What began as policy has quickly evolved into a series of high-impact trades shaping both Wall Street sentiment and global geopolitics.

 

As an investor, it makes sense to track these developments:

1. Bitcoin

 

 

Even before assuming office, Trump flagged strong interest in cryptocurrency and in establishing a U.S. strategic reserve of Bitcoin. Over the past year, Bitcoin’s price has increased by approximately 60%

2. AI & Tech Infrastructure

 

  • Intel Corporation: A reported acquisition of a ~10 % U.S. government stake (at around US $8.9 billion) was made at roughly US $20.47 per share, and within two months the stock nearly doubled toward ~US $41.83 — representing a sharp return.

  • More broadly, AI infrastructure, compute-power and chip manufacturing are being rewired for domestic production. Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, Intel, Apple have announced billions of dollar investment in the US.

3. Critical Minerals & Supply-Chain Sovereignty

 

To counter external dependencies—especially China’s dominance in rare-earths and battery minerals—major initiatives have been launched:

  • MP Materials Corp.: The U.S. Department of Defense acquired a ~15% stake on July 11, making it the largest shareholder. Since then, the stock gained ~64.8% (from ~$45.11 to ~$74.33 by Oct 6).

  • Lithium Americas Corp.: In connection with restructuring a US $2.26 billion federal loan, the administration pursued a 10% ownership stake. After market news on Sept 23, the stock surged from ~$3 to ~$10 by Oct 14—over 200% in under a month.

  • Trilogy Metals Inc.: The U.S. government’s 10% stake announcement triggered a >200% jump in the stock in a single session.

 

Note: These returns capture the initial momentum; however, all three names have seen recent profit-taking and increased market scrutiny.

4. Quantum Computing: The Next Frontier

 

 

Now the focus shifts to quantum-computing firms—technology with the potential to disrupt AI, cybersecurity, materials science and more.

 

Quantum computing stocks are on fire over the trailing-12-months, Shares of IonQ(NYSE: IONQ), Rigetti Computing(NASDAQ: RGTI), D-Wave Quantum(NYSE: QBTS), and Quantum Computing Inc.(NASDAQ: QUBT) have respectively soared by 284%, 3,140%, 2,760%, and 1,310%.

Trump’s latest moves highlight a new era of state-backed capitalism, where political influence and market strategy intersect. Whether in Bitcoin, semiconductor chips, or rare-earth metals, the U.S. is clearly positioning itself for technological and resource independence.

 

For investors, these “Trump trades” are more than headlines—they represent a structural realignment of where future value and volatility will reside.


The key lies in staying alert, diversified, and disciplined—identifying the difference between a passing trade and a generational opportunity.

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25 Essential Money Skills to Build Financial Independence

a quick, actionable list of 25 Money Skills that can help anyone become financially unstoppable — simple yet powerful habits to strengthen your financial foundation.

1. Saving & Budgeting

  • Build an Emergency Fund: Keep 3–6 months of expenses aside for peace of mind.

  • Follow the 50/30/20 Rule: 50% needs, 30% wants, 20% savings/investments.

  • Zero-Based Budgeting: Assign every rupee a purpose — income minus expenses equals zero.

  • Cash Envelope Method: Allocate cash for each expense to control overspending.

  • Automate Savings: Set automatic transfers to ensure consistency.

 

👉 These steps build discipline and ensure you always pay yourself first.

2. Debt & Credit

  • Understand Credit Score: Your financial report card—impacts loans, cards, and EMIs.

  • How to Pay Off Debt: Focus on high-interest loans first (avalanche method).

  • Avoid High-Interest Loans: Stay clear of unnecessary personal or credit card debt.

  • Loan Card Management: Pay bills on time; maintain good credit utilization.

  • Debt-to-Income Ratio: Keep monthly obligations under 35–40% of your income.

     

👉 Smart debt management protects wealth and boosts creditworthiness.

3. Investing

  • Know Stock Market Basics: Understand how businesses grow wealth over time.

  • Mutual Funds & ETFs: Ideal for diversified, long-term investing.

  • Compound Interest: Let your money earn on itself — the eighth wonder of the world.

  • Dollar-Cost Averaging: Invest regularly to reduce market timing risk.

  • Retirement Accounts: Start early — time is your biggest asset.

 

👉 Investing early and consistently accelerates compounding and financial freedom.

4. Income & Money Growth

  • Multiple Income Streams: Never depend on one source; explore side incomes.

  • Negotiate for Higher Pay: Regularly reassess your worth.

  • Side Hustles: Monetize your skills or passions.

  • Freelancing & Digital Skills: Upskill to stay relevant in today’s economy.

  • Passive Income: Create systems where money works for you.

     

👉 Building multiple streams ensures stability and long-term growth.

5. Financial Mindset & Habits

 

  • Avoid Lifestyle Inflation: Don’t let expenses rise with income.

  • Be Consistent in Saving/Investing: Small, regular actions compound massively.

  • Track Net Worth: Review assets and liabilities to monitor real progress.

  • Practice Delayed Gratification: Choose future gains over instant pleasure.

  • Set SMART Goals: Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound.

     

👉 The right mindset sustains wealth beyond numbers — it builds financial discipline.

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AI – Revolution or overhyped bubble?

Artificial intelligence is the new buzzword on Wall Street. Today, anyone with a model can raise capital—just like the internet boom 25 years ago, when simply owning a website was enough to attract capital.

 

Most of those companies eventually went bankrupt, yet as Morgan Housel reminds us, history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. Which is why it makes sense to study the past before we get carried away with the present.

What is Artificial Intelligence?

 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) simply means making computers and machines smart enough to do things that usually need human intelligence — like understanding language, recognizing pictures, learning from experience, or making decisions.

 

It’s basically teaching machines to “think and act” like humans in certain situations.

Tesla’s robot Optimus

Tesla’s Self Driving Car

The Scale of AI Investment: Record-Breaking Numbers

 

 

AI investment has surged to unprecedented levels. Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, and Google will have invested about $560 billion in AI infrastructure over the last two years, but have brought in just $35 billion in AI-related revenue combined.

 

In US, 65% of Venture Capital investment is going into AI or machine learning based startups. OpenAI has raised money at $700 billion, despite its own internal projections showing it will lose over $100 billion over next five years.

The Bubble Case

  • Investor Hype vs. Reality: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman himself admits that “investors as a whole are overly excited about AI,” likening today’s frenzy to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.

  • Limited Economic Impact: MIT economist Daron Acemoğlu estimates that only 25% of automatable tasks will be economically viable for AI within the next decade, resulting in a modest 0.9% boost in U.S. GDP over ten years—far below the hype.

  • High Cost of Deployment: Goldman Sachs’ Jim Covello stresses that AI is “extraordinarily expensive”, often trying to replace low-wage jobs with high-cost infrastructure, which questions its long-term business viability

  • Profitability Concerns: An MIT study found that 95% of publicly disclosed AI projects failed to improve profitability, underscoring a weak business case despite massive investment.

  • Power & Energy Constraints: AI infrastructure—particularly GPUs and data centers—demands enormous amounts of electricity and cooling, raising concerns about sustainability and scalability.

  • Overconcentration of Winners: The bulk of AI gains so far are concentrated in a few “Big Tech” firms (NVIDIA, Microsoft, OpenAI), leaving many startups overvalued without clear paths to revenue.

  • Talent & Data Bottlenecks: Scarcity of specialized AI talent and access to quality proprietary data make it difficult for most firms to compete, further exaggerating bubble-like conditions.

  • Regulatory Risks: Governments worldwide are exploring AI regulations and antitrust actions, which could slow adoption and profitability.

The Case in Favor of AI

  • Transformational Potential: AI is not just a single product but a general-purpose technology, much like electricity or the internet, with applications across healthcare, finance, education, logistics, and more.

  • Productivity Gains: McKinsey estimates AI could add $2.6–$4.4 trillion annually to the global economy by unlocking efficiencies, automation, and decision-making improvements.

  • Early Success Stories: AI is already proving its value—self-driving assistance, fraud detection in banking, drug discovery, and personalized recommendations (Amazon, Netflix) are clear examples of tangible ROI.

  • Deflationary Impact: By automating repetitive or low-value tasks, AI has the potential to reduce costs, increase speed, and expand accessibility of services (e.g., education via AI tutors, healthcare diagnostics at scale).

  • Innovation Catalyst: Generative AI is accelerating content creation, software development, and research, dramatically lowering the cost of experimentation and innovation.

  • Massive Investment Flywheel: The $320 billion capex commitments from Big Tech in 2025 create strong infrastructure foundations (data centers, GPUs, software ecosystems), ensuring AI development won’t vanish overnight like dot-com failures.

  • Long-Term Compounding: Just as the internet had a messy, bubble-like start but ultimately transformed the world, AI may follow the same path—early failures won’t negate its long-term structural impact.

Artificial Intelligence is not a short-lived trend or speculative boom—it is a transformational revolution on par with the industrial revolution and the digital revolution, but unfolding at a much faster pace. It is redefining how economies grow, how businesses compete, how governments function, and how individuals live and create. The true measure of its impact will not be in years or even decades, but in the way it permanently alters human civilization.

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Gold Prices Hit Historic Highs – What’s Driving the Rally?

Gold has just broken every record, soaring past ₹1,13,000 per 10 grams for the first time ever—marking an extraordinary 48% surge over the past year. From central banks in emerging economies to everyday investors seeking security, the yellow metal is attracting unprecedented demand. Even seasoned analysts are turning more bullish.

But what’s fueling this extraordinary rise—and what does it mean for investors and the broader economy?

Key Drivers of the Gold Rally

1. Real Interest Rates & Fed Policy

  • With real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates trending low or negative, the opportunity cost of holding gold has fallen sharply.

  • Softer U.S. inflation data and slowing job growth have increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening the dollar and boosting gold’s appeal.

 

2. Global Uncertainty & Central Bank Buying

  • Geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, Middle East) and fears of stagflation continue to push investors toward safe-haven assets.

  • Central banks remain aggressive buyers: Q1 2025 saw 244 tonnes of purchases, after a record 1,086 tonnes in 2024. Nearly 76% of central banks expect to further increase holdings over the next five years.

 

3. Currency Pressure & Indian Factors

  • The rupee’s ~3% depreciation YTD has amplified the domestic rally, with Indian gold prices rising ~44% in 2025 alone.

  • Seasonal factors—festival and wedding demand—continue to fuel imports, while ETFs and investment demand have surged.

  • The government’s recent GST cuts on consumer goods may indirectly boost household capacity to buy gold.

 
 

The Bottom Line

 

From the Russia-Ukraine war and U.S. banking stress in 2023 to the current global trade frictions, every shock has reinforced gold’s role as the ultimate safe haven. Risks remain—particularly if real interest rates rise or geopolitical tensions ease—but the combination of limited supply, aggressive central bank buying, and ongoing uncertainty suggests that gold’s strength may be more than a short-lived spike.

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It’s Payback Time (for the World)

A World Awash in Liquidity

 

The global economy in recent years has been flooded with liquidity, fueling a massive rally in assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. Ultra-loose monetary policies—especially in the United States—pumped unprecedented money into the financial system.

 

This flood of easy money drove investors to chase higher returns in riskier assets, inflating prices worldwide. Yet few stopped to ask: Where is all this liquidity coming from? The answer lies largely in central banks’ printing presses and quantitative easing programs, which created trillions of new dollars out of thin air.

 

In other words, the asset boom was built on a tide of newly created money, not just organic economic growth.

Unprecedented Money Printing by the U.S.

 

In the United States, the scale of money creation has been historic. The Federal Reserve printed more money in the last five years than at any comparable period in modern history. For instance, in 2020 alone – during the COVID-19 crisis – the Fed created about $3.3 trillion in new money, equal to roughly 20% of all U.S. dollars in existence at the time

 

This was part of aggressive “quantitative easing” to prop up the economy. The surge continued into subsequent years: between early 2020 and early 2022, the U.S. money supply (M2) ballooned by around 40%.

Soaring U.S. Debt and Interest Costs

 

One consequence of all this stimulus is that U.S. government debt has skyrocketed to record levels. America’s national debt now stands at over $36 trillion – an eye-watering figure that exceeds the country’s annual GDP many times over. Servicing this debt is becoming alarmingly expensive. In 2024, the U.S. spent about $1.1 trillion just on interest payments, almost double what it paid in interest five years earlier.

 

To put that in perspective, the government now spends more on interest than on national defense.

 

In short, the U.S. government’s “borrow and spend” bingeof the past years has led to a debt burden that many fear is approaching a breaking point.

Tariffs: Making Exporters Pay to Access the U.S. Market

 

Shipping containers at the Port of Houston. The U.S. is leveraging its huge consumer market through tariffs, effectively charging foreign exporters for access.


Facing ballooning debt and deficits, the United States has turned to a new strategy: making foreign exporters pay to sell in the U.S. market. After decades of pursuing the lowest-cost imports under globalization, the trend has reversed. Washington is now slapping tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of imports – a shift that essentially charges overseas producers a hefty fee (import tax) for the privilege of accessing American consumers. The rationaleis straight forward: the U.S. is the world’s largest consumer economy, with a GDP over $25 trillion and an average consumption per person around $60,000 a year

 

In other words, America is the “world’s best and biggest consumer market”. This gives the U.S. enormous leverage. The White House explicitly argues that foreign exporters will bear the cost of the new tariffs because they “rely on access to the American economy, the world’s largest consumer market,”

 

In short, it’s payback time – the U.S. is asking those who profit from American buyers to pay up in the form of tariffs to cover the interest cost.

A Windfall in Tariff Revenues (But at What Cost?)

 

This aggressive tariff policy has already started bringing in significant revenue for the U.S. government. In July 2025 alone, the U.S.Treasury collected about $30 billion in tariffs – a monthly record, and a staggering 242% increase from the tariff revenue in July 2024. Year-to-date, tariff receipts have surged, topping $150+billion in the first seven months of 2025.

 

Officials project that as the new trade taxes fully kick in,the government could rake in tens of billions per month from import duties; one estimate even suggests tariff revenue might reach $50 billion each month under the latest rates.

 

For a government struggling with deficits, these funds are a welcome offset – the July 2025 haul of $30 billion in tariffs can theoretically help pay down a slice of the national debt or fund domestic programs.

 

However, economists caution that this “free money” is not truly free: tariffs are essentially a tax on imports, and U.S.businesses and consumers often end up paying higher prices as those costs get passed along.

 

In effect, the tariffs make foreign companies contribute to U.S. coffers, but they also raise costs in supply chains, adding inflationary pressure. It’s a delicate trade-off – one that marks a dramatic change in U.S. trade policy after years of lower trade barriers

Outlook: Uncertainty Is Here to Stay

 

Zooming out, the world economy is now entering a more uncertain phase. The combination of massive money printing, unsustainable debts, and shifting trade policies has introduced volatility and unpredictability into global markets. Chief economists around the world agree that uncertainty is unusually high. In mid-2025, 82% of top economists said global economic uncertainty was “very high,” and a significant share fear that a year from now it could be even worse.

 

Indeed, the rapid tariff escalations and geopolitical tensions have rattled business confidence, leading firms to delay investments amid unclear rules.

 

Inflation, interest rates, and currency values are all influx as central banks and governments struggle to adjust. The “new normal” seems to be a state of persistent uncertainty and caution. As one World Economic Forum report noted, many experts see today’s disruptions not as a passing phase but as a structural shift – the global economy “moving into a new phase of disruption and adaptation to new realities”

 

In conclusion, the era of easy money is ending, and payback time has begun. The liquidity that once lifted all boats is now receding, revealing huge debts that need servicing. The United States, as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, is taking bold (and controversial) steps to shore up its finances – even if that means asking the rest of the world to chip in via tariffs. For the foreseeable future, governments, businesses, and investors will have to navigate a landscape of high debt, rising costs, and policy uncertainty. The only certainty is that there are no free lunches in economics; eventually, the bills come due – and we are now seeing who will pay the price.

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The Silent Threat to India’s Growth Story

India’s biggest threat isn’t a war with Pakistan or China’s rise as a superpower. Ironically, it may come from what has long been considered our greatest strength: our population.

📊 What is India’s Demographic Dividend?


India is currently in the midst of a demographic dividend—a phase where the working-age population (15–64 years) is larger than the dependent population (children and elderly). This typically boosts economic growth through:

  • A larger labor force

  • Higher savings and investment

  • Greater innovation and productivity


But here’s the concern: this dividend is not permanent.

🚨 The Warning Signs Are Here

 

🔹 India’s fertility rate has now dropped below the replacement level for the first time.
🔸 As per NFHS-5 (National Family Health Survey), India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2023 stands at 1.94, below the replacement rate of 2.1.

 

❓What is the Replacement Rate?

 

The replacement fertility rate (2.1) is the number of children each woman needs to have for a population to replace itself in the absence of immigration. Below this, the population starts to shrink over time.

⚠️ The Double-Edged Sword of Education & Migration

 

As more Indians—especially urban, educated professionals—choose to:

 

  1. Delay or avoid having children

  2. Migrate abroad permanently

     

…the following risks start to emerge:

 

  • 📉 Declining productivity due to fewer young workers

  • 👵 Ageing population leading to a heavier social security burden

  • 💸 Brain drain where India’s best talent fuels growth in other countries (like the US)

🌍 Lessons from the West

  • Japan: TFR of 1.3; economy stagnant, elderly outnumber youth

  • Italy & Germany: Ageing populations straining healthcare and pension systems

  • China: Now facing a demographic crisis after decades of one-child policy

  • United States: Relatively stable, thanks to immigration-friendly policies and attracting global talent

🔮 What Lies Ahead?

 

India is expected to remain young till the late 2030s. But by the 2040s, the working-age population will start shrinking—just as the dependency ratio rises.

 

This is a long-term structural risk. And unfortunately, there is no quick fix.

 

💡 Final Thought

 

Until then, enjoy the demographic tailwind and the investment opportunities it brings. But remember—demographics shape destiny, and India needs bold, forward-looking policies to sustain its growth story beyond this decade

Onesta Capital Ventures is a Multi Family Office based out of Gurugram (India). We aim to provide tailored independent wealth management and other family governance solutions to individuals and corporates.

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