Stars are aligned for India’s growth

India’s growth prospects are currently at a historic high, with several factors aligning in its favor. The country benefits from a youthful demographic, technological advancements, a thriving digital economy, and increasing foreign investments.

 

Additionally, government initiatives focused on infrastructure development, manufacturing, and renewable energy are paving the way for sustainable growth. As India continues to foster innovation and entrepreneurship, it is well-positioned to become a global economic power house in the coming decades. Below are the few factors supporting India’s growth:

Favorable Demographics:

Over 65% of India’s population is below the age of 35, providing a large and growing workforce. Median age of India’s population is approximately 28 years, compared to 38 years in China and 48 years in Japan, offering a longer window to capitalize on its youthful workforce.

Infrastructure Boom:

Infrastructure development in India will significantly boost economic growth by improving connectivity, reducing transportation costs, and enhancing the efficiency of supply chains. It will create jobs, stimulate industries like construction, manufacturing, and logistics, and attract more foreign investments. Better infrastructure will also improve access to healthcare, education, and markets, benefiting rural and urban populations alike. Additionally, it will support sustainable growth through energy-efficient solutions and smart cities, fostering long-term economic stability and quality of life improvements.

Robust Startup Ecosystem

India’s startup ecosystem is one of the fastest-growing in the world, ranking as the third-largest globally. As of 2024, India is home to over 95,000 startups, with more than 110 unicorns (startups valued at over $1 billion). The ecosystem has attracted significant foreign investment, with venture capital and private equity funding crossing $40 billion annually in recent years. Government initiatives like Startup India, tax incentives, and incubator support have spurred innovation across sectors, particularly in technology, fintech, healthcare, and e-commerce. Additionally, India’s young, tech-savvy population and a rising middle class are driving the adoption of new services, creating a vibrant environment for startups to thrive.

Economic reforms:

Over the past 10 years, the BJP government has introduced several policies aimed at boosting economic growth, enhancing infrastructure, fostering entrepreneurship, and improving ease of doing business. Here’s an overview of key initiatives:

  1. Make in India (2014)

  2. GST (2017)

  3. Digital India (2015)

  4. Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (2016)

  5. Startup India (2016)

  6. Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (2014)

  7. Production Linked Incentive Scheme (2020)

  8. Tax reforms – faceless assessments, corporate rate tax cuts

  9. Renewable sector push

  10. Jan Dhan Yojana

Low Interest Rates and IPO Fundraising

India’s current low interest rate environment is fostering increased borrowing for businesses and consumers, driving investments and economic activity. Additionally, record-breaking IPO fundraising by Indian companies has injected substantial capital into the economy, enabling businesses to expand, innovate, and generate employment. These factors combined create a fertile ground for sustained economic growth, as companies leverage accessible funding to scale operations and meet rising demand.

Domestic Market and Export Boom

India’s large and growing domestic consumer market, driven by a young and upwardly mobile population, offers a robust foundation for long-term growth. Rising disposable incomes and a growing middle class continue to fuel demand for goods and services across sectors.

 

Simultaneously, India’s record-breaking exports in sectors like engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, and software services are strengthening its global economic footprint. The dual advantage of a vast internal market and increasing exports positions India as a resilient and versatile player in the global economy.

Geopolitical Advantage: As companies diversify supply chains away from China, India is emerging as a key alternative due to its skilled labor pool, stable government, and market size.

 

Rising Global Influence: India’s active participation in international forums (G20 presidency, BRICS, QUAD) enhances its stature, encouraging trade and foreign collaboration.

 

Financial Stability:

  1. Forex Reserves: India has robust foreign exchange reserves of over $600 billion, providing a cushion against external shocks.

  2. Debt Management: With controlled fiscal deficits and sustainable public debt levels, India has avoided major macroeconomic imbalances.

  3. GDP Growth: India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies, with a projected growth rate of 6-7% annually, outpacing most global peers.

Conclusion

 

India’s unique combination of demographic potential, financial stability, digital acceleration, economic reforms, and infrastructure investments positions it as a global growth engine. With proactive policymaking and increasing global alignment, India is poised for sustained, high-growth momentum in the coming decades.

Monthly Market Outlook – NOVEMBER’24

Early Exits, Lost Billions

We all admire legends like Mark Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett, Steve Jobs, and Elon Musk for building billion-dollar empires. Yet, behind their success lies a lesser-known truth: they didn’t do it alone.

Each of them had co-founders or partners or investors who were part of the journey but exited the stage too soon, missing out on the chance to share in the incredible wealth that followed. These four instances offer valuable lessons about vision, timing, and staying the course.

Ronald Wayne (Apple)

Wayne co-founded Apple with Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak but sold his 10% stake for $800 in 1976. Today, that stake would be worth over $200 billion (making him the fifth richest person)

Marc Randolph (Netflix)

Randolph left Netflix early, before it grew into the streaming giant it is today. While he benefited financially, a full stake in Netflix, now worth over $200 billion, would have translated into several billions more.

Rick Guerin (Berkshire )

In the 1973-74 downturn, Rick was levered with margin loans. And the stock market went down almost 70%. Rick got margin calls, and he sold his Berkshire stock to Warren Buffet at under $40 apiece (today $700,000). His Net worth would have been $4 Billion.

Andy Bechtolsheim (Google)

Bechtolsheim, an early investor in Google, provided the company with a $100,000 check before it was even incorporated. While he did profit handsomely when Google went public, had he retained his entire stake, it could have been worth over $10 billion, far exceeding his eventual earnings.

India in Focus: A Growth Story Unfolding

 

India can become AI chip capital of the world”: SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son

 

“India ‘kind of laboratory to try things”: Bill Gates, Microsoft

 

India is becoming ‘startup nation’ of the world” WEF President Borge Brende

 

The world is bullish on India” IMF’s Krishnamurthy Subramanian

Economic Indicators Overview – October 2024

 

Manufacturing PMI: India’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) moderated to 56.5 in November 2024, compared to 57.5 in October. Despite the slowdown, the index remained firmly in the expansion zone (>50) for the 40th consecutive month. Growth was bolstered by accelerated exports and sales, although the rate of output expansion softened. Rising input costs posed challenges but were offset by resilient external demand.

 

Services PMI: The HSBC India Services PMI, compiled by S&P Global, held steady at 58.4 in November 2024, marginally down from 58.5 in October. Robust growth in the services sector continued, supported by strong demand and record hiring. Domestic and international orders contributed to sustained momentum. However, input cost inflation surged to a decade-high, leading companies to pass on price increases to clients, reflecting in higher output prices.

 

GST Collections: Gross GST collections stood at ₹1.82 trillion in November 2024, marking an 8.5% year-on-year growth. This sustained the streak of monthly collections exceeding ₹1.4 trillion for the 33rd consecutive month. The April 2024 record of ₹2.1 trillion remains unmatched but sets a high benchmark for fiscal performance.

 

Core Sector Production: The index of eight core industries grew by 3.1% year-on-year in October 2024, up from 2.4% in September. Seven out of eight constituent sectors recorded growth, with coal production leading at 7.8% year-on-year. The improvement was influenced by a favorable base effect and steady industrial demand.

 

Industrial Production: Factory output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), increased by 3.1% in September 2024, a rebound from a 0.1% contraction in August. Growth was observed across all three major sectors—manufacturing, mining, and electricity—highlighting a broad-based recovery.

 

Credit Growth: Scheduled Commercial Bank credit grew by 11.15% year-on-year as of November 15, 2024, compared to 20.64% in the corresponding period of the previous year. The decline reflects a high base effect following the merger of HDFC Ltd. and HDFC Bank. Despite this, credit growth remains healthy, supported by robust lending activity across sectors.

Equity Market Performance – November 2024

 

Market Indices

  • The BSE SENSEX rose by 0.5% in November 2024, outperforming the NSE NIFTY index.

  • Both the BSE Mid-Cap and BSE Small-Cap indices underperformed the SENSEX, gaining only 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, during the month.

  • Top-performing sectors for November 2024 included:

    • Information Technology (IT): +5.8%.

    • Teck: +4.9%.

    • Consumer Durables: +3.0%.

       

Institutional Flows

  • Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs): Net FII outflows from Indian equities stood at – $2.5 billion in November, following significant outflows of – $11.2 billion in October 2024.

  • Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): DIIs continued to be net buyers, with inflows of + $4.5 billion in November 2024, though lower than the + $12.8 billion recorded in October.

  • Year-to-Date (CY2024) Trends

    • Net FII Flows: Negative at – $2.0 billion.

    • Net DII Flows: Robust at + $58.2 billion, significantly outpacing FII activity in the Indian equity cash markets.

       

This divergence highlights the sustained strength of domestic inflows, even amid global market uncertainties and persistent foreign outflows.

 

Indian Fixed Income Market Outlook – December 2024

 

Monetary Policy

 

On December 6, 2024, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI):

  • Maintained the policy rate, aligning with market expectations.

  • Reduced the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to 4%.

     

These measures reflect a balancing act between inflation and growth. The recent inflation print exceeded 6%, breaching the RBI’s upper target range, and prompted the central bank to revise its Q3 FY25 inflation projection to 5.7%. Despite limited room for immediate rate cuts, weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP growth and downwardly revised GDP forecasts for H2 FY25 provide scope for easing. The RBI is anticipated to cut policy rates in February 2025, with inflation expected to moderate to ~4% by Q2 FY26.

 

Liquidity

  • Banking System Liquidity: Average system liquidity remained robust at ₹1.42 trillion in November 2024 (vs. ₹1.53 trillion in October).

     

  • Core Liquidity: Core liquidity (system liquidity + government balances) declined sharply to ~₹1.4 trillion by November 22, from ₹3.2 trillion at October-end and ₹4.3 trillion at September-end.

    • Key drivers included:

      • RBI forex interventions to address currency pressures.

      • Higher cash demand during the festive season.

 

Fixed Income Market

  • Yields in the fixed income market remained largely range-bound in November 2024.

  • The 10-year G-sec yield traded between 6.75% and 6.85%, influenced by:

    • A higher-than-expected monthly inflation print, which temporarily pushed yields upward.

    • Softer-than-expected GDP data, which moderated yields towards month-end.

 

Fiscal Policy

  • Gross tax receipts for April-October 2024 grew by ~11% year-on-year, supported by:

    • Buoyant direct tax collections.

    • Resilient indirect tax performance.

  • The record-high RBI dividend further boosted non-tax revenues, strengthening fiscal buffers.

Key Events to Watch in December 2024

 

1. U.S. Policy Developments: The potential for increased tariffs on foreign goods entering the U.S. remains a critical area of focus as the new administration shapes its trade policies. Such measures could significantly impact inflation, global trade dynamics, and price-sensitive industries and markets worldwide.

 

2. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting The FOMC is scheduled to meet on December 18, 2024, to deliberate on monetary policy. Following rate cuts in September and November 2024, the policy rate currently stands at 4.5%-4.75%. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut, though key economic indicators like labor market performance and inflation could influence the final decision.

 

3. Additional Market Monitors

  • Festive Season Demand: Consumer spending trends during the festive season will provide insights into domestic economic resilience.

  • Oil Market Volatility: Fluctuations in crude oil prices may influence inflation and trade balances, impacting energy-intensive industries.

  • Central Government Capex: Updates on capital expenditure plans by the central government will shed light on infrastructure growth and economic recovery prospects.

  • GST Council Meeting: Key policy announcements from the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council could affect taxation and compliance trends, particularly for businesses operating in India.

 

These developments will play a significant role in shaping market movements and economic sentiment through December 2024.

Looking Ahead – Market Outlook

 

November 2024 witnessed a series of significant global and domestic developments, resulting in heightened market volatility. Key factors to watch in the coming months include:

 

Global and Domestic Factors

  1. U.S. Policy Shifts: With new U.S. leadership set to assume office early next year, potential material policy changes, particularly in trade and fiscal strategy, warrant close monitoring.

  2. State Election Impact in India: On the domestic front, recent state election results could reinforce policy continuity, boosting investor confidence and market stability.

  3. Q2 FY25 GDP Performance: India’s GDP growth for Q2 FY25 moderated to a seven-quarter low of 5.4% year-on-year, impacted by:

    • Adverse weather conditions.

    • Sluggish urban consumption.

    • Reduced government spending.

       

      Looking ahead, these challenges are expected to ease, supported by higher government expenditure, festive season demand, and a robust Kharif and Rabi harvest.

       

Corporate Earnings Trends

  • Earnings Downgrade Stabilization: The worst of earnings downgrades appears to be behind us, with minimal further reductions anticipated in the second half of FY25.

  • Sectoral Highlights

    • Weak overall consumption is offset by a strong premiumization trend.

    • Global demand-driven sectors like Information Technology and metals exhibit resilience, with minimal risk of earnings downgrades.

Valuation Trends

  • Large Caps: Valuations have corrected closer to long-term averages.

  • Mid and Small Caps: Despite recent corrections, these segments trade at a premium, supported by robust domestic flows.

     

Market Strategy

  1. Navigating Volatility: Given the uncertain geopolitical landscape, currency market fluctuations, and relative Indian market valuations, heightened volatility is likely in the near term.

  2. Investment Approaches

    • Large-Cap Focus: Well-diversified strategies, such as Large Cap, Flexi Cap, and Multi Cap funds, offer compelling opportunities for medium-term investors.

    • Downside Protection: Asset allocation strategies, including Multi Asset Allocation and Dynamic Equity, provide better risk-adjusted returns.

    • Mid and Small Caps: Long-term investors with higher risk tolerance can consider staggered allocations to mid and small caps through systematic investment plans (SIPs).

       

By maintaining a balanced and diversified approach, investors can navigate the current environment while positioning for long-term growth.

Digital landlords

In the modern digital economy, digital landlords have emerged as pivotal entities reshaping industries & consumer behaviors. These are platforms that own and manage digital ecosystems, acting as intermediaries between users and services while commanding significant influence over market dynamics. Unlike traditional landlords who own physical spaces, digital landlords provide the virtual infrastructure where transactions, interactions, and services occur.

 

Their power lies in their ability to aggregate demand and supply, leveraging network effects to create dependency among users and businesses. By monetizing access to their platforms through fees, advertisements, or data utilization, these companies have become indispensable players in sectors like e-commerce, food delivery, financial services, and entertainment. Giants like Amazon, Zomato, Netflix, and Visa exemplify this model, driving unprecedented convenience for users while amassing substantial wealth and control.

Visa - Moving money globally

Visa has solidified its position as a dominant digital land lord in the global payments ecosystem, transforming how transactions are conducted. Over the past few years, its revenue has witnessed consistent growth, driven by the surge in digital payments and the proliferation of e-commerce. Visa’s expansive network, spanning millions of merchants and consumers across the globe, has made it an indispensable part of everyday financial transactions.

 

By offering seamless, secure, and instant payment solutions, Visa has created a dependency among businesses and individuals, embedding itself into the fabric of modern commerce. Its success lies not just in its technology but also in fostering a habitual reliance, making it nearly impossible to imagine a world without its services. This section explores Visa’s meteoric revenue growth and its pervasive influence as a digital landlord in the financial landscape.

Visa’s revenue growth has been supported by:

 

·       A strong gross profit margin

·       Consistent dividend growth

·       A premium valuation

·       Growth in payments volume

·       Growth in cross-border volume

·       Growth in processed transactions

 

Despite facing stiff competition, Visa continues to reign supreme in the global payments arena. As of 2023, it holds roughly 48% of the credit card market share based on the number of cards in circulation, compared to MasterCard’s 36%.

Meta

Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, has established itself as a dominant digital landlord by creating an interconnected ecosystem of platforms that billions of people rely on daily. Over the past few years, Meta’s revenue has seen exponential growth, driven by its advertising-based business model and data-driven personalization strategies. By leveraging algorithms designed to maximize user engagement, Meta has cultivated an addictive cycle of content consumption, making its platforms integral to modern social interaction, business marketing, and entertainment. This report explore show Meta’s strategic dominance has fuel led its financial success while shaping user behaviour on a global scale.

Key Aspects of the Monopoly

  1. Massive User Base: Meta owns three of the most-used platforms globally, with billions of active users across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

     

  2. Cross-Platform Integration: By integrating features like messaging and advertising across these platforms, Meta has created a tightly interconnected ecosystem, making it difficult for competitors to thrive.

     

  3. Advertising Dominance: Meta’s platforms collectively capture a significant share of global digital ad revenue, providing businesses unparalleled reach.

     

  4. Data Aggregation: Meta collects vast amounts of user data across its platforms, enabling it to refine algorithms and maintain an edge over competitors.

     

  5. Addictive Features: Algorithms and features designed to maximize engagement have led to widespread dependence on Meta’s platforms for socializing, entertainment, and business.

Zomato - Never have a bad meal

Zomato, one of India’s leading food delivery and restaurant discovery platforms, has evolved into a quintessential digital landlord, revolutionizing how people dine and order food. Over the past few years, Zomato has witnessed remarkable revenue growth, driven by its extensive restaurant partnerships, data-driven personalization, and are lent less focus on user convenience. By creating a seamless ecosystem of food delivery, dining reviews, and subscription services like Zomato Gold, the platform has cultivated an almost addictive reliance among users. This report examines Zomato’s ascent as a digital landlord, exploring the strategies behind its success and its impact on consumer habits.

The company’s growth was driven by its robust execution, which has outpaced Swiggy’s expansion despite both players witnessing significant growth in user base and restaurant partners. Zomato’s monthly transacting users (MTUs) reached 20 million, while Swiggy had 14 million MTUs.

CDSL

Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) has emerged as a cornerstone of India’s financial ecosystem, functioning as a digital landlord for the securities market. By providing a secure and efficient platform for dematerializing and managing financial assets, CDSL has made itself indispensable to investors, brokers, and financial institutions. Over the past few years, its revenue has seen remarkable growth, fueled by a surge in retail participation in stock markets and increased digital adoption.

 

CDSL’s platform has created a dependency among users by streamlining processes such as account opening, transaction recording, and custodial services. Its ability to centralize and manage critical financial data has made it not just a facilitator but a gatekeeper of the digital financial landscape, underscoring its influence and in dispensability in the era of digital finance.

Revenue: CDSL’s revenue has grown from Rs 2,843 m in FY20 to Rs 9,073 m in FY24. Over the past 5 years, the revenue of CDSL has grown at a CAGR of 33.7%.

 

Net Profit: The net profit of CDSL stood at Rs 4,196 m in FY24, compared to Rs 2,013 min FY21.

 

Over the past 5 years, CDSL net profit has grown at a CAGR of 40.8%.

Revenue Streams of CDSL

  1. The annual issuer charges: Every company (listed issuer of securities) pays annual charges to the depository as per SEBI’s guidelines, this is one of the major sources of recurring income for CDSL. In FY 2024, the collected annual issuer charges were Rs. 25,379 lakhs.

     

  2. Transaction charges: The next source of revenue is transaction charges and it is also the most significant source. Transaction charges are a fixed amount that the DP has to pay to the depository – CDSL for making any transactions (done by the investors/ traders). The transaction charges are paid by the trader/ investors and DP collects the same and deposits the amount with the depository. In FY2024, the transaction charges collected by CDSL were Rs. 22,158 lakhs.

     

  3. Online data charges: Then CDSL charges for online data as well. The primary charge collected under this segment is for KYC creation which is a one-time fee and then there are other charges for fetching data as well. In the FY2024, CDSL made Rs. 15,945 lakhs from online data charges.

     

  4. IPO and corporate actions charges: CDSL made around Rs. 9,256 lakhs from IPO and corporate actions charges in FY 2024.These are the charges paid by the issuer companies for facilitating IPO and other corporate actions by crediting the securities in the investors’ Demat account.

     

  5. Other segments: While the above-mentioned four categories make up the most of the revenue, there are a few other charges such as e-voting charges, ECAS charges, document storage charges, and others that add up to the revenue stream.

Netflix - See what’s next

Netflix has transformed the entertainment landscape, evolving from a DVD rental service to a global leader in streaming. Over the past few years, its revenue has surged, driven by its subscription-based model, international expansion, and investment in original content. With an algorithm that tailors recommendations and a vast library of binge-worthy shows and movies, Netflix has created a dependency among viewers, making it a quintessential example of a digital landlord. This section explore show Netflix has leveraged its platform to dominate the industry and reshape consumer behavior.

Revenue Streams of Netflix: Netflix’s revenue comes from several sources, including:

  1. Subscriptions: The majority of Netflix’s revenue comes from subscription fees, with about 90% of its revenue coming from subscriptions and partnerships in 2022. Netflix offers three subscription plans: basic, standard, and premium.

     

  2. Advertising: Netflix’s ad-supported tier is a new revenue source, and it accounts for half of new memberships in available markets. Netflix attracts advertisers through programmatic market places like Google Display & Video 360 and The Trade Desk.

     

  3. Content licensing: Netflix can license out its original content to other services, which brings in revenue. Some of Netflix’s original content, like Stranger Things and The Crown, have become globally popular.

     

  4. Partnerships: Netflix can form strategic partnerships to expand its reach.