Your next crore

For many middle-class investors, a portfolio worth a crore still feels like a distant dream. Many of our investors have touched this milestone recently. As India’s equity culture continues to grow and the Sensex rises, more investors are eager to capitalize on this momentum.

However, we always remind our investors that reaching a crore is just one milestone on your financial journey, not the final destination. While it’s natural to feel excited, remember that the best is yet to come. In fact, each successive crore could take less time than you might imagine in your wealth creation journey.

The sooner you reach that first crore, the quicker you’ll move on to your second, third, and beyond. As illustrated in the chart above, if you invest Rs 50,000 per month at an annual return rate of 15%, it may take nine years to reach your first Rs 1 crore. But don’t be discouraged—if you continue investing, your second crore could come in just three years, and your third in only 2.5 years. This is the extraordinary power of compounding. By the 18th year, you could be adding nearly Rs 1 crore every year to your wealth.

 

And if you think that’s impressive, consider this: in your 28th year, an additional Rs 4 crore could be added from the ongoing Rs 50,000 monthly investment, while the 30th year could see Rs 5 crore added.

This isn’t just limited to SIPs. For example, it might take ten years for Rs 25 lakhs to grow into Rs 1 crore at a 15% return rate, but the next crore could come in just five years, and the one after that in three years only.

Compounding is like a snowball rolling downhill

 

It starts small, but as it gathers more snow, it grows larger with each turn. Similarly, reaching your first crore may feel like a long and challenging process because you’re starting with a smaller base. But once you hit that milestone, your portfolio’s growth accelerates, making it quicker to reach the additional crore. You’ll find that the time taken to achieve each additional crore becomes shorter and shorter.

 

Magic of compounding turns your money into a powerful wealth-generating tool. The key is to stay invested and allow your money to work harder for you as it grows.

 

Disclaimer: Equity returns are not a straight line, as depicted in the chart. They fluctuate over time, with ups and downs. The above examples are for illustrative and educational purposes only.

Monthly Market Outlook – July’24

Who moved our markets?

It is an indisputable fact that stock prices are driven by liquidity in the short term and fundamentals in the long run.

 

India’s NSE 500 is one of the best-performing market in the world. We decoded who moved the markets over the last four years:

  1. COVID Strikes: February 2020 to March 2020

  • Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold ₹83,000 crore worth of Indian equities.

  • Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) invested ₹72,000 crore.

  • The market corrected by 35% because of sudden and aggressive selling.

  1. Post-COVID: April 2020 to April 2021

  • Seeing the cheap valuations of Indian equities and rate cuts across the globe, FIIs infused more than ₹2 lakh crore over the next 12 months.

  • DIIs were net sellers of ₹1.32 lakh crore.

  • This mismatch caused the indices to rise by 92% in a matter of 12 months.

 

  1. DII FOMO: April 2021 to October 2021

  • DIIs, fearing missing out, turned net buyers, infusing ₹51,000 crore in the next 6 months.

  • Along with DIIs, FIIs were net buyers as well, resulting in a 26% market rise over 6 months.

  1. Global rate hikes and Russia-Ukraine War:

  • FIIs withdrew a record ₹3.9 lakh crore from Indian equities.

  • Markets were resilient due to DII support, with DIIs infusing ₹3.09 lakh crore.

  • The market corrected by 20%.

  • Markets moved sideways from October 2021 to March 2023 (18 months).

  1. Rise of domestic investors: March 2023 to Date:

  • DIIs, sitting on record cash due to SIPs, NPS & EPF money, infused a record ₹3.58 lakh crore, while FIIs sold ₹84,000 crore.

  • The markets rose by 63%.

Position as of Now:

 

The markets have fully priced in the economic growth for the next few years. The valuations are not cheap. While a price correction (fall in prices) may not be significant because of liquidity, a time correction (sideways market) cannot be ruled out.

 

Domestic investors infused a record ₹34,697 cr., ₹40,608 cr. and ₹37,113 cr. in the last three months in equity mutual funds alone. FIIs want to invest in India but valuations are not attractive. Even if the market corrects, say by 10-15%, FIIs will invest heavily. Either way, it’s a win-win for patient Indian long term investor.

 

Existing investors can continue their investments. Fresh lumpsum should be deployed in funds with flexible approach – Multi Asset Funds and Flexicap Funds.

Quote of the month

There are two ways to increase your wealth:

  1. Increase your means or

  2. Decrease your wants

 

The best is to do both at the same time.

 

– Benjamin Franklin, Founding Father of the United States

Economic Indicators Overview

 

Manufacturing PMI: India’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July 2024 dipped slightly to 58.1 from 58.3 in June 2024. Despite the decrease, the index has remained in expansion territory (>50) for the 36th consecutive month, driven by strong production volumes, new order intakes, and overall positive business sentiment.

 

Services PMI: The Services PMI, reported by HSBC, stood at 60.3 in July 2024. This marks nearly three years of consistent growth, with the index remaining above the critical 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction.

 

GST Collection: Gross GST collections reached INR 1.82 trillion in July 2024, reflecting a 10.3% year-on-year increase. This figure marks the third-highest collection on record and the 29th consecutive month of collections surpassing the INR 1.4 trillion mark. The increase is attributed to rising compliance, higher output prices, and increased tax revenues from imports and domestic transactions.

 

Core Sector Production: The index of eight core sector industries showed a year-on-year decline of 4% in June 2024, following a 6.3% growth in May 2024.

 

Industrial Production: Industrial output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), grew by 5.9% in May 2024, up from 5% year-on-year growth in April 2024. This acceleration is supported by stable growth across the mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors.

 

Credit Growth: Credit growth for Scheduled Commercial Banks reached 14.01% year-on-year as of 12th July 2024, compared to 20.07% growth as of 14th July 2023. The apparent slowdown is largely due to the base effect following the merger of HDFC and HDFC Bank.

Equity Market Overview

 

The BSE SENSEX rose by 3.4% in July 2024, mirroring the performance of the NSE NIFTY index.

 

Mid-cap and Small-cap Indices: The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices outperformed the BSE SENSEX, recording gains of 5.4% and 6.1% respectively.

 

Sector Performance: Among sectors, Infotech, Teck, and Oil & Gas were the top performers in July 2024, with gains of 12.9%, 11.2%, and 10.5% respectively. Out of BSE’s 13 sectoral indices, 10 ended the month in positive territory.

 

Net Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) flows into equities were positive in July 2024, with an inflow of $3.27 billion, recovering from an outflow of $3.11 billion in June 2024.

 

Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers of Indian equities, with net purchases of $2.80 billion in July 2024, slightly down from $3.43 billion in June 2024.

 

Fixed Income Overview

 

Global Trends: Many advanced economies, including the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, have started cutting interest rates. In July 2024, the Bank of England began its rate cut cycle, while the US Federal Reserve signaled a potential rate cut starting in September. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan diverged by raising its policy rate and initiating a quantitative tightening program.

 

Indian Fixed Income Market – Future Outlook:

  • The commencement of rate cuts by major global economies and the anticipation of an early rate cut by the US are expected to exert downward pressure on global fixed income yields.

  • Indian bonds are likely to benefit from easing global yields, strong domestic macroeconomic fundamentals, lower core inflation, reduced bond supply, and improved demand, possibly due to bond inclusion.

  • Money markets are well-supported by ample system liquidity, driven by seasonality, lower T-bill supply, and Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) inflows.

  • While inflation is expected to ease in Q2 FY25, volatile food prices, robust domestic growth, and global geopolitical uncertainties are likely to keep the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on hold during its August 2024 policy meeting.

  • The size and timing of the RBI’s rate cuts in the second half of FY25 (October-December) will likely be influenced by the evolving domestic inflation outlook and global policy actions.

     

Liquidity:

  • Banking system liquidity was positive in July 2024, improving to INR 1.1 trillion from a deficit of INR 50,000 crore in June 2024 and INR 1.4 billion in May 2024, supported by government spending and lower cash requirements.

  • Government balances remained strong, averaging INR 3 trillion in July 2024, compared to INR 4.2 trillion in June 2024 and INR 3.5 trillion in May 2024.

  • Core liquidity, which includes system liquidity and government balances, stood at approximately INR 4.25 trillion by the end of July 2024, up from INR 3.5 trillion at the end of June and INR 3.6 trillion at the end of May.

Events to Watch in August 2024:

 

Earnings Season: Indian companies are expected to continue reporting their Q1 FY25/Q2 CY24 earnings from early July 2024 through mid-August 2024. So far, earnings have been buoyant and largely in line with consensus expectations, reflecting the underlying strength of the economy.

 

Monsoon: As of August 2, 2024, cumulative rainfall was 4.4% above the long-term average (LTA), with weekly rainfall 18% above the LTA. Regionally, central and southern India experienced excess rainfall, northern India received normal rainfall, and east and northeast India saw a rainfall deficit. Out of the 36 sub-divisions, nine have reported deficient rainfall, 14 have seen normal rainfall, and 13 have received excess rainfall.

Looking Ahead:

 

India’s growth outlook remains positive, with most leading indicators showing strength. While the long-term domestic growth prospects are favorable, current equity valuations reflect much of this optimism, leaving limited room for disappointment.

 

Recent quarterly earnings were largely in line with expectations, but given the high valuations, any earnings misses could have a more pronounced impact.

  • Union Budget 2024: The budget remains focused on fiscal consolidation as outlined in the Interim Budget 2024, with emphasis on skill development, agriculture, MSMEs, climate change, and digital penetration.

  • Policy Continuity: The budget also reflects policy continuity with a sustained emphasis on capital expenditure (Capex) to create more employment opportunities and drive consumption.

  • Investment Cycle: The investment cycle is expected to continue with increased private sector participation, provided there are no major shifts in global dynamics or risk appetite.

  • Earnings Outlook: A mid-teen earnings improvement is likely on a broad scale. A recovery in international demand and a rebound in local rural markets could provide additional upside. Future market performance is expected to be closely tied to earnings growth.

  • Investment Strategies: Large-cap oriented strategies, such as Large/Flexi/Multi Cap funds, appear well-positioned. In the thematic space, the Banking & Financial Services sector looks attractive due to relatively favorable valuations.

  • Mid and Small Cap Allocations: For investors with a medium-term perspective, staggered allocations in Mid and Small Cap segments through a systematic investment route may be prudent.

Castles are not built in the air

Last week, the Nifty 50 Index touched a significant milestone, crossing 25,000 points. This is noteworthy not just for the number itself but for the pace at which it was achieved—just 221 trading sessions, or roughly eleven months. While this milestone is cause for celebration for many investors, whose portfolios are also reaching all-time highs, we believe it’s a prudent time to reassess the risks in equities.

Valuation Concerns:

  1. Price to Earnings Ratio: The trailing P/E ratio of the BSE500 currently stands at 31x, a level comparable to the pre-COVID era and about 10% higher than the 2007 peak. While these elevated valuations have persisted for some time, the current macroeconomic and earnings backdrop differs significantly from previous periods. In 2017 and post-COVID, low interest rates were a crucial support for these valuations. Today, however, the primary driver is earnings.

  1. Price to Book Ratio: On a P/B basis, the BSE500 is trading at 4.5x, which is 20% higher than pre-COVID levels but below the 2007 Global Financial Crisis peak of 6.5x. The difference lies in the Return on Equity (RoE) profile—while the BSE500 RoE was 25% at the 2007 peak, it was just 10% in 2018 and is around 15% today.

  1. Market Cap to GDP Ratio: The market cap to GDP ratio has once again reached the previous peak of 150% from 2007. This metric effectively captures both primary and secondary market sentiments. However, the economic backdrop has changed—while nominal GDP was growing in the mid-to-high teens in 2007, it is now struggling to reach double digits. This disparity suggests that current market valuations may be out of sync with the real economy.

Why Do Valuations Matter?

 

When it comes to investing, the initial valuation at which you enter a position is crucial in determining your medium-term returns. While the impact of valuations on short-term performance can be less predictable, their influence over the medium term is undeniable and often decisive.

 

In light of these rich valuations across multiple metrics, we advise exercising caution in the current market environment. While there may still be opportunities, the potential risks should not be overlooked.

Other indicators which may prove that the market is in overvalued zone:

 

1.       Record number of IPOs

2.       NFOs raising record money in sectoral funds

3.       Promotor selling in secondary market

4.       Increase in speculative ideas

However, these parameters overlook the concerns surrounding valuations:

  1. Liquidity: With record monthly inflows from SIPs, EPF, NPS, and insurance funds, the market is currently flush with liquidity. The fundamental driver of these flows is income growth, which, if sustained, will likely have positive spillovers across various asset classes.

     

  2. Strong Balance Sheets: Historically, Indian and emerging market earnings have moved in tandem. However, since the post-COVID recovery, India Inc.’s earnings have significantly outperformed those of other emerging markets. Additionally, from a corporate balance sheet perspective, Indian companies are now much more deleveraged.

     

  3. CAPEX Cycle Sustainability: The government has been focused on building infrastructure and has invested record amounts over the medium term. For continued economic growth, it’s essential that this CAPEX cycle remains robust.

Predicting the exact inflection points in a market with strong momentum is very challenging. However, we believe that at this stage, the margin of safety is limited.

What Should You Do as an Investor?

 

The fundamental drivers of India’s multi-decade consumption and infrastructure growth, are still firmly in place. While predicting market direction is impossible, careful planning is essential. If your financial goal is approaching in 2024, it might be wise to consider moving funds out of equities and into safer investment options.

 

For fresh lump-sum investments, a flexible approach that allows you to diversify across sectors/asset classes could be prudent—consider options like Multi-Asset or Flexicap funds.

For other existing investors, we recommend to stay invested as India’s long-term growth story remains intact.

 

For SIPs, it’s advisable to continue them, keeping in mind your financial goals and risk tolerance.

 

We remain vigilant and committed to providing insights that help you navigate these complex market conditions. Please do not hesitate to reach out if you have any questions or would like to discuss this further.