Peter Lynch’s 25 Golden Rules for Investing

Peter Lynch is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time. He is known for his successful track record as the manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund, which he ran from 1977 to 1990.

 

During his tenure, Lynch grew the fund from $18 million to over $14 billion, achieving an average annual return of 29.2%, which is more than double the return of the S&P 500 index during the same period. His success was due to his investment philosophy of finding undervalued companies with strong growth prospects, and his ability to identify emerging trends before they became widely recognized.

 

Overall, Peter Lynch is remembered as a legendary investor who achieved exceptional results by sticking to his investment principles and taking a long-term perspective on the companies he invested in.

Rule 1: Investing is fun and exciting, but dangerous if you don’t do any work.

 

Rule 2: Your investor’s edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It’s something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.

 

Rule 3: Over the past 3 decades, the stock market has come to be dominated by a herd of professional investors. Contrary to popular belief, this makes it easier for the amateur investor. You can beat the market by ignoring the herd.

 

Rule 4: Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.

 

Rule 5: Often, there is no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even a few years. In the long term, there is a 100% correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient, and to own successful companies.

 

Rule 6: You have to know what you own, and why you own it. “This baby is a cinch to goup” doesn’t count.

 

Rule 7: Long shots almost always miss the mark.

 

Rule 8: Owning stocks is like having children — don’t get involved with more than you can handle. The part-time stock picker probably has time to follow 8-12 companies, and to buy and sell shares as conditions warrant. There don’t have to be more than 5 companies in the portfolio at any one time.

 

Rule 9: If you can’t find any companies that you think are attractive, put your money in the bank until you discover some.

 

Rule 10: Never invest in a company without understanding its finances. The biggest losses in stocks come from companies with poor balance sheets. Always look at the balance sheet to see if a company is solvent before you risk your money on it.

 

Rule 11: Avoid hot stocks in hot industries. Great companies in cold, non- growth industries are consistent big winners.

 

Rule 12: With small companies, you are better off to wait until they turn a profit before you invest.

 

Rule 13: If you are thinking of investing in a troubled industry, buy the companies with staying power. Also, wait for the industry to show signs of revival. Buggy whips and radio tubes were troubled industries that never came back.

 

Rule 14: If you invest $1000 in a stock, all you can lose is $1000, but you stand to gain $10,000 or even $50,000 overtime if you are patient. The average person can concentrate on a few good companies, while the fund manager is forced to diversify. By owning too many stocks, you lose this advantage of concentration. It only takes a handful of big winners to make a lifetime of investing worthwhile.

 

Rule 15: In every industry and every region of the country, the observant amateur can find great growth companies long before the professionals have discovered them.

 

Rule 16: A stock market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you are prepared, it can’t hurt you. A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.

 

Rule 17: Everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach. If you are susceptible to selling everything in a panic, you ought to avoid stocks and stock mutual funds altogether.

 

Rule 18: There is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of the newscasters. Sell a stock because the company’s fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.

 

Rule 19: Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market, Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you have invested.

 

Rule 20: If you study 10 companies, you will find 1 for which the story is better than expected. If you study 50, you’ll find 5. There are always pleasant surprises to be found in the stock market — companies whose achievements are being overlooked on Wall Street.

 

Rule 21: If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.

 

Rule 22: Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies. You can afford to be patient — even if you missed Wal-Mart in the first five years, it was a great stock to own in the next five years. Time is against you when you own options.

 

Rule 23: If you have the stomach for stocks, but neither the time nor the inclination to do the homework, invest in equity mutual funds. Here, it’s a good idea to diversify. You should own a few different kinds of funds, with managers who pursue different styles of investing: growth, value small companies, large companies etc. Investing the six of the same kind of fund is not diversification.

 

Rule 24: Among the major stock markets of the world, the U.S. market ranks 8th in total return over the past decade. You can take advantage of the faster- growing economies by investing some portion of your assets in an overseas fund with a good record.

 

Rule 25: In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or a money-market account.

 

In the long run, a portfolio of poorly chosen stocks won’t outperform the money left under the mattress.

Monthly market update & outlook – March’23

Bombay plan 1944: Cognizant of the gaps post independence and the need to broad base industrial growth in India, a group of industrialists comprising JRD Tata, Ghanshyam Das Birla, Sir Purshotamdas Thakurdas, among others, banded together to imagine what independent India’s economy would look like. They published a plan for economic development for India, commonly known as the Bombay Plan, 1944:

 

  • It agreed on the need for rapid industrialization and central planning;

  • It saw an expanded role for India in global trade;

  • It saw support from government for development of private sector, rather than control;

  • It envisaged a doubling of India’s per capita income within 15 years;

  • It called for creating industries for the production of power & capital goods;

  • It targeted doubling of share of industry in economy from 17% to 35%.

 

However, the Congress appointed National Planning Committee (NPC) wanted government ownership of industry. The Bombay Plan, 1944 was an early example of private sector led efforts to design an economic roadmap for India but it did not pan out as expected because of differences with National Planning Committee.

 

Source: Amitabh Kant authored Made In India

Quote of the month

The real way to build wealth in the long run, is to find a limited number of things with a lot of potential, and not too much risk, and stay with them for the long term.

 

-Howard Marks

In the long run, GDP, corporate profits and stock market (Nifty) moves in line. As of today, we are a $3 trillion economy. As per estimates, India will reach $30 trillion economy by 2047 – Stock market may also touch new highs in the times to come (but with volatility).

From the global leaders:

 

Indian macro dataflow remained strong:

  • Manufacturing PMI: Manufacturing PMI rises to three month high of 56.4 in March and remained in expansion zone (>50 points) for the 21st straight month;

  • Services PMI: Services PMI slowed to 57.8 in March after a 12-year high in February but remained in expansion zone (>50 points) for the 20th straight month;

  • GST Collection: Collections of Rs. 1.6 lac crores in March was second highest collection ever;

  • Credit growth: Driven by strong demand for personal loans, NBFC growth and liquidity crunch, credit offtake grew by 15 per cent YoY in March. With this, India witnessed the sharpest rise in borrowings in last eleven years;

  • Inflation: March CPI inflation seen at 15-month low of 5.7%;

  • Forex: India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $578 billion as of March 31;

  • GDP: Basis latest estimates, GDP likely to grow at 7% in FY23;

  • Trade Deficit: narrowed in February to USD 17.4 Bn as compared to USD 17.7 Bn in Jan.

Equities:

  • Domestic equity markets remained flat in the month of March with Nifty ending with a marginal gain of 0.3%;

  • Smallcap 250 and Midcap 150 index marginally underperformed Nifty;

  • FPIs bought Rs. 12,578 cr. of Indian equities in the month of March;

  • Mutual Funds SIP inflows remain in elevated zone at Rs. 13,000 cr.+ for the month of March reflecting the strong belief of Indian investors in equities.

  • The Indian equities have witnessed a time correction in the last one year (Increase in corporate profits leading to fall in valuations without any major fall in prices). Fund managers across industry have started to increase exposure to equities.

     

Fixed income:

  • RBI did not hike repo rate in the month of March;

  • The 10Y G-Sec crashed from high of 7.46 to 7.219 as of April 12, 2023;

  • The current curve remains very flat with everything in corporate bonds beyond 1 year up to 15 years is available @7.-7.65% range.

  • Despite high interest rates, there is high liquidity crunch in the system. Average systemic liquidity deficit stood at Rs. 31 Bn in March 2023 as compared to a deficit of Rs. 58 Bn in February 2023.

     

Outlook:

  • The broad indices have not corrected as much as individual stocks. The Nifty 500 barely moved on a 6 month basis even though nearly 45% stocks have corrected by more than 10%. There are many unknowns ahead such as monsoons and oil prices yet we trust the resilience of the Indian economy and believe that a SIP into a diversified fund such as our Midcap, Flexicap, Smallcap

    will be the best way to ride out these uncertainties.

     

  • Growth stocks have taken a hit after rise in interest rates. Since, RBI is near the peak of interest rate cycle, we expect the growth stocks to outperform in the next three-five year period after the rate cut cycle starts. Depending upon the risk profile, one may take exposure to mutual funds investing in growth stocks in a staggered manner of nine months.

Monthly market update & outlook – April’23

Rs. 200 crore inheritance

  • In 2017, a person called Zee Business to enquire about the value of a few share certificates purchased by his grandfather around 1993.

  • To everyone’s surprise, the company was MRF (Madras Rubber Factory – a tyre manufacturer incorporated in 1960) & his grandfather held 20,000 shares purchased for Rs. 2 lacs in 1993.

  • In 2017, the shares were valued at around Rs.130 cr. (the price of one MRF share was Rs. 65,000). At current market price of Rs. 99,200, the shares must be valued around Rs. 200 cr. – excluding dividends. MRF is the first Indian share to cross Rs. 1 lac mark in futures.

  • The per annum return on the investment stands at 36% (excluding dividends).

The returns may sound very astonishing but key takeaways from this:

  • Power of patience: In today’s time when most investors check their portfolio’s return multiple times a day, it’s indeed a tough task to hold a company’s share or a mutual fund for 30 years. For 10 long years, from 1999 to 2009, MRF was trading around 1500 i.e. 0 returns. Most of the MRF investors must have exited the share during this phase – only to regret today when it crossed 1 lac recently.

  • No gain without pain: In the short run, the market could fluctuate but in the long run, the market works on fundamentals and good companies tend to reward their shareholders. On multiple occasions, MRF also corrected by more than 50% yet it has delivered close to 35% per annum return since IPO (1993).

  • Power of compounding is one of the most powerful yet underestimated force in this world. 35% compounded annually for 30 years is not 1050% (35% X 30 years) but 901,918%. Very few understand this.

Quote of the month

Owning stocks has continued to be twice as rewarding as owning bonds. Acting on this bit of information will be far more lucrative in the long run than acting on the opinion of 200 commentators & advisory services that are predicting the coming depression.

 

-Peter Lynch

Indian macro dataflow remained strong:

  • Manufacturing PMI: Manufacturing PMI at 4 month high in April on robust demand for new orders and remained in expansion zone (>50 points) for the 22nd straight month;

  • Services PMI: The Indian services PMI jumped to 62, reaching a 13 year high in April 2023. It remained in expansion zone (>50 points) for the 21st straight month;

  • GST Collection: Collections of Rs. 1.87 lac crores in April was the highest collection ever;

  • Credit growth: Scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) reported a robust credit growth of 15.4% in FY23 compared to 9.7% in FY22. With this, India witnessed the sharpest rise in borrowings in the last eleven years;

  • Inflation: WPI inflation eases to 29 month low of 1.34% in March;

  • Forex: India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $588.8 billion as of April 28.

Equities:

 

  • The Nifty Index gained 4.1% in April;

  • Mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed large-cap indices and were up 6.0% and 7.5%, respectively;

  • Sector-wise, all sectors ended positive, except IT;

  • Globally, India was the best performing market in April, followed by Russia (+4%), UK (+3%) and Japan (+3%);

  • FIIs continued to BUY aggressively in April’23, with net buying of INR 9,792 cr.;

  • Mutual Funds SIPs touched Rs. 14,000 cr. for the first time reflecting the strong belief of Indian investors in equities.

 
 

Fixed income:

  • The MPC kept the repo rate on April 6, 2023 unchanged to 6.50% in a unanimous decision surprising the market which were expecting a further 25bp hike;

  • The 10Y G-Sec crashed from high of 7.46 to 7.046 as of May 10, 2023;

  • The current curve remains very flat with everything in corporate bonds beyond 1 year up to 15 years is available @7-7.65% range.

  • System liquidity remained in surplus with average monthly liquidity rising to Rs.1,53,205 crores surplus vs a deficit of Rs. 1,271 crores in the month of March.

 

Outlook:

  • While geopolitical issues still persist (Russia-Ukraine conflict, US-China trade war, Taiwan Political status etc.) the global supply chains have seen tremendous improvement in the recent months. During March’23, commodity prices have been slightly volatile (at lower levels) and most of the base metal prices have seen some moderation in recent months. Brent currently stands at $72/barrel and has fallen by 25% over the past 6 months (down 15% over past one month). Lower commodity prices should give some room for inflation control and may give respite to concerns on global inflationary trends.

     

  • While things are evolving on the global front, for Indian economy on a relative term there are more positives than negatives. On the domestic front, the key indicators continue to remain encouraging. Strong CV sales growth, stable GST and income tax collections, robust commentary from the manufacturing sectors, steady pickup in the credit growth to pre covid levels, stable exports growth and strong consumer spending are the key positive indicators.

     

  • Companies have started deploying the excess profit, as evidenced by the increase in ordering activity – a precursor to increase in private Capex.

     

  • Overall, despite the near-term recessionary concerns, over the medium to long term, Indian equity market looks to be on a strong footing. The current ongoing geo-political events may pose a risk to equities in the near-term, however, we continue to be bullish on India’s long term growth story.